While the seat of Lyons might not attract the same attention as its more marginal neighbours Bass and Braddon, the nature of Labor's 2019 victory could mask the true state of play in Tasmania's largest electorate.
Subscribe now for unlimited access.
$0/
(min cost $0)
or signup to continue reading
Labor MHR Brian Mitchell only held a 2.3 per cent margin after ousting one-term Liberal Eric Hutchinson in 2016, and the seat seemed in play when Brighton councillor Jessica Whelan was preselected as his Liberal challenger.
The southern parts of Lyons - taking in Hobart's working class outer north - is Labor country, and Ms Whelan could have used her local profile to eat into this, combining with the Liberals support in the rural areas.
What followed was a disaster for the party.
A series of Ms Whelan's anti-Muslim, anti-immigration social media comments emerged and she resigned, but stayed on the ballot. The coalition threw its support behind Nationals candidate Deanna Hutchinson instead.
Mr Mitchell ultimately increased his margin to 5.2 per cent despite his primary vote dropping.
This time around the Liberals have found a far safer candidate: businesswoman Susie Bower.
While achieving a big enough swing against Labor to win the seat seems unlikely given national polling, it remains to be seen where Mr Mitchell's popularity sat after 2019 - and if he's done enough to keep Lyons red.
Meet all the candidates
- Susie Bower (LNP)
- Rhys Griffiths (Liberal Democratic Party)
- Brian Mitchell (ALP)
- Anna Megan Gralton (Animal Justice Party) - A paper candidate, could not be contacted for comment
- Jason Evans (United Australia Party)
- Troy Pfitzner (Jacqui Lambie Network)
- Emma Goyne (Pauline Hanson's One Nation)
- Liz Johnstone (Australian Greens)
Payback time for the Liberals?
Mr Mitchell briefly found himself at the centre of national media attention earlier this month when a selection of his past unsavoury social media comments were brought back up, mostly from 2011.
Labor leader Anthony Albanese was even questioned about it out of the blue, and Mr Mitchell deleted his accounts.
One interesting aspect of the 'scandal' was that this was not a new story. On May 14, 2019 - four days out from the last election - a Tasmanian media outlet posted a story about those exact same comments that had been "provided" to it.
Second time around they gained more traction, it seems.
Questionable candidates and disendorsements across the political divide were a regular feature of the last campaign, but not so much this time, perhaps explaining why Mr Mitchell's posts gained the attention they did.
On the other hand Ms Bower has kept her campaign controversy-free, allowing her senior Liberal colleagues to do the talking at announcements.
She initially kept her job as chief executive officer of the Bell Bay Advanced Manufacturing Zone, but stepped down after noting it received a level of federal funding.
She also resigned from Meander Valley Council when preselected.
Both parties splash the cash
Both parties have been busy making local announcements throughout Lyons, so much so that the Liberals even accused Labor of pork-barrelling in the seat.
They've each promised $2 million for paper mill Norske Skog near New Norfolk to carry out upgrades, $15 million for the Royal Flying Doctors Service at Launceston Airport and $2.3 million to improve Brighton's soccer facilities.
The Liberals have promised $1 million for Prospect Vale Park, while Labor has promised $500,000.
But when it comes to specific projects in Lyons, Labor has promised more than double the Liberals: $52.5 million compared with $24.3 million.
Labor's list includes $11 million for Inghams Chicken at Sorell, $8 million for streetscape works in Perth and Campbell Town, $5 million for a New Norfolk sports package, $2.5 million for Sorell Centrelink and $2.25 million for mobile upgrades in Ansons Bay, Tea Tree and Sheffield.
Then there was a range of smaller-scale announcements like $500,000 for St Helens RSL renovations and $150,000 for the Campbell Town Men's Shed.
For the Liberals, they have promised $3 million for the Georges Bay Track, $1 million for Boyer Oval and $45,000 for the Longford cenotaph.
Yet the election is likely to come down to the big ideas, rather than the grants.
Mr Mitchell pointed to more funding for psychiatric telehealth consultations and new bulk-billed urgent care centres as benefiting Lyons, along with improving the NDIS and fee-free TAFE courses.
He also promoted a policy to make childcare cheaper.
Ms Bower said new PBS medicine listings had been achieved under the Liberals, along with more support for GPs in country hospitals and funding for advanced skills training for doctors.
She said local areas identified as priority for recruiting doctors would have an extension of their priority status for another year.
Why not have your say? Write a letter to the editor here:
Our journalists work hard to provide local, up-to-date news to the community. This is how you can continue to access our trusted content:
- Bookmark www.examiner.com.au
- Make sure you are signed up for our breaking and regular headlines newsletters
- Follow us on Twitter: @examineronline
- Follow us on Instagram: @examineronline
- Follow us on Google News: The Examiner