Latest polling for Voice suggests majority of Tasmanians support YES

The poll from Nine's Resolve Political Monitor published on Monday surveyed 4728 eligible voters over two weeks between September 22 to October 4.

It has a margin error of 1.4 percentage points, and it found that 56 per cent of Tasmanian respondents supported an Indigenous Voice to Parliament.

In contrast, New South Wales showed that 52 per cent would vote NO, as would 54 per cent of Victorian respondents.

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Nationally, the Resolve poll found that 49 per cent of voters were heading for NO, 38 per cent for YES, and 13 per cent undecided.

Resolve's findings, landing just under a week before the vote, challenge existing expectations for Tasmania.

Election analyst Kevin Bonham told the ABC that given the state's demographics, particularly in the North, "Tasmania shouldn't be an actual Yes".

"Tasmania has a long history of voting No to referendums [and] is quite often the state with the highest No votes," Mr Bonham said.

Mr Bonham's comments align with reader surveys conducted by Australian Community Media about the Voice referendum.

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At ACM's September survey, support for "No" grew considerably among Tasmanian readers.

The Examiner's reader survey results showed that support for the NO vote grew by 8 points to 63 per cent between June and September.

From The Advocate's North West audience, 74 per cent supported NO, a figure that rose by 15 per cent between June and September.

Nationally, ACM's readers showed that 61 per cent would vote "No", 34 per cent would say "Yes" and 5 per cent were undecided.

The same survey in June showed 38 per cent for "Yes", 55 per cent "No" and 7 per cent undecided.

The Conversation's Election Analyst Adrian Beaumont told The Examiner that although overall sample size in the Resolve poll was over 4700, the Tasmanian component would only be about 150, assuming that the survey was weighted to the overall Australian population.

"However, Resolve polls have shown much better "yes" votes in Tasmania than nationally," he said.

Update: The Examiner was contacted by Adrian Beaumont who said upon further investigation that the Tasmanian sample in Resolve's latest Voice poll was actually 501 and that smaller states were deliberately oversampled.

Mr Beaumont also said that all current important Tasmanian politicians support the Voice.

"That may explain why it's more pro-"yes" than nationally."

Member for Bass Bridget Archer is one prominent Liberal politician who has thrown her support behind the Voice.

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Mrs Archer, who has participated in a number of public information sessions about the Voice, said positive engagement she'd seen in Northern Tasmania was reflective of the latest poll showing majority support for the Voice in the state.

"I have been heartened by conversations I have had with members of our community who have been genuinely unsure of how to vote and given the facts, have seen that giving Indigenous Australians a voice on matters that relate to them is a positive pathway forward for our country.

"It's a cliché but it stands true that the only poll that will matter on the referendum is the one on October 14 and I remain hopeful."

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