Mac Point stadium 'the new pulp mill' as independents wait in wings

In fact, with a bigger House of Assembly, increasing from 25 seats to 35, the lower percentage required for a seat will see an influx of independents, just as the so-called Teal independents stole mostly Coalition seats at last year's Federal election.

Neither major party is currently a hit with voters.

Since the last election the Libs' vote is down from 52 per cent to 42 per cent, while despite voter fatigue with the Liberal Party in power since 2014, Labor has barely made up any ground.

So the pickings are ripe for independents and minor parties like the Greens and the Jacquie Lambie network.

Labor is still under Federal intervention from its national office because of historical party infighting and Bec White is failing to capture public admiration.

White has made up ground in the preferred premier stakes and Jeremy Rockliff's vote has declined, but according to EMRS the undecided vote has ballooned out fro 12 per cent to 17 per cent, in spite of both major party leaders being well-known parliamentary veterans.

The greatest threat to the major parties is the Teals phenomenon, where politically sublime, even conservative identities are robbing them of seats.

The threat from the Teals is that they are moderate, even conservative in some cases.

They are not raving Lefty candidates or Leftwing Greens.

They are acceptable to middle class voters because they embrace moderate policies and populist philosophies such as climate change.

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Both major parties' primary vote declined at the Federal election last year, it's just that the Coalition was a victim of longevity, with a PM on the nose while the Coalition was barely able to mount a defence against the emergence of the Teals.

In federal politics the non-Labor seats in the House of Representatives fall just three short of out voting Labor, while in the Senate the non-Labor seats almost double the Government's strength.

Things still get done in Canberra.

MPs talk tough to the media and in Parliament but away from the drama and theatre, deals and compromises are thrashed out.

I expect that the major parties here will have to come to terms with it.

Of course they will rule out deals and certainly any coalition like the Greens in minority government in 2010, but once the postal votes are counted it will be musical chairs again.

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I've only ever seen two instances where a major party leaders backed up their pledge to rule out a minority government, Michael Field and Ray Groom in 1996.

Field learnt from the chaotic period of a hung Parliament in 1989 and stayed away from Government House.

Groom lost his majority in 1996 and resigned rather that strike a deal with the Greens, and let Tony Rundle become a minority Liberal Premier.

Rundle survived for a while only because the Port Arthur massacre united the Parliament.

So I expect both major parties will fall short of the magic 18 seats to rule as a majority government in the bigger Parliament.

Back in the years of a 35-seat House of Assembly, a party that won 19 seats could claim it to be a landslide.

Neither major party is on track to reach that milestone with the next election due within two years.

And the pressure is bound to affect them.

Bec White has still to face the David O'Byrne factor and the pressure from her national colleagues to bring him back inside the tent.

If they let him back into the Labor Caucus I am quite sure he will behave like a fox in the chicken coup.

He won't be walking back into his old caucus for nostalgia sake.

He will want to reclaim the prize.

Jeremy Rockliff is equally under pressure.

His authority has been weakened by the backbench resignations over the Mac Point stadium, but more than that the conservatives have got a whiff of the spilt blood caused by the resignations.

Rockliff used his authority to take the party room with him on social issues like backing the proposed Voice and backing a republic.

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Now that his authority has been weakened one might wonder what policies might happen to come up for review.

The more he gets rolled on his agenda the weaker and more vulnerable he will become.

If Eric Abetz eyed a seat in the state arena and raised his profile over the next year, Rockliff will become even more vulnerable.

The worse the major parties appear to voters over the next 12 to 18 months the more likely independent and minor parties will make gains.

We've seen sombre warnings before of chaos looming because of independents, but the last time was the Labor-Green Accord in 1989.

Back then two unpopular parties battled over a pulp mill.

This time it is two unpopular parties battling over a stadium.

You better get used to it.

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