Tasmania's longest-serving Liberal premier believes a new sports stadium in Hobart will be the death knell for AFL games in the North, which voters could in turn punish the government for at the next state election.
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Former premier Robin Gray and his son Ben, a financial head honcho who jointly runs Australia's largest private equity fund, fear the social and economic damage from the proposed stadium so much that they have decided to speak out against it.
Their message is simple: a new waterfront stadium in Hobart is a dud deal for the state and even worse for the North.
Former premier Peter Gutwein in March, one month before his retirement, announced the ambition for a new stadium in Hobart to aid the state's big for an AFL licence.
AFL chief executive Gillon McLachlan later said the stadium would be contingent on whether or not Tasmania would secure its own team in the league.
The government has since commissioned a feasibility study into the stadium proposal, which has an early estimated cost of $750 million.
The AFL as yet has not committed a dollar to the project, but has pledged to help Tasmania secure the remainder of funding required from the federal government.
Mr Gray Jr said the government's commitment to the deal factored in $500 million towards the stadium and $12 million per year over 10 years. On top of that were the expected budget blowouts for the project, he said.
Mr Gray Snr said UTAS Stadium at Inveresk, which houses 20,000 seats, could easily be expanded to accommodate another 5000 seats to match the numbers proposed at the new stadium.
He said a brand new stadium would effectively be in competition with UTAS Stadium for games.
"The effect of this will mean that football in the North will die," he said.
Mr Gray Jr said the North and North-West of the state had around 6000 Hawthorn members, out of a statewide membership of 8000, who had loyally supported the AFL when Hawthorn started to play games in Launceston.
He said game attendances on average at UTAS Stadium were 16,000 people, compared to 8000 in Hobart, which demonstrated the region's commitment to football.
Mr Gray Jr said the AFL had funded Greater Western Sydney to the tune of hundreds of millions of dollars and only 10,000 people showed up to its home games.
"Yet it's hard to see any real AFL financial contribution here - instead the Tasmanian taxpayers are funding it," he said.
ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS
Mr Gray Snr said football fans in the North would not be the only losers should more games and better games be played in Hobart - business would be too.
Mr Gray Jr said should there be 12 games played in Tasmania when the state had its own AFL team, and it was estimated up to nine would be played in the South at the new stadium and three in the North.
He said there was an assumption the Southern games would benefit from hosting the league's stronger and more popular teams to justify the investment, leaving UTAS Stadium to host the "dud games."
"You'll end up with games with much lower attendances as a result and so the restaurants, the bars, the hotels, the cafes, and all the retailers in Launceston will be very significantly negatively impacted by the AFL and the government's choice of moving all good games to Hobart," Mr Gray said.
"I have the utmost respect for the AFL and for the Tasmanian Government, but the deal does really dud the people of the North and actually duds the people of Tasmania as a whole."
POLITICAL CONCERNS
Mr Gray Snr said the Bass, Braddon and Lyons electorates were crucial for the Liberals to remain in power.
The Liberals convincingly held onto three of its seats in Bass in 2021 on the strength of Mr Gutwein's personal vote and former Education Minister Sarah Courtney also polling well.
However Mr Gray Snr said those vote-pullers would not be around at the 2025 election.
"If [the party] manages to offend only 20 per cent of the 16 or 20,000 population that support York Park, they will easily lose a lot more votes above those they have already lost from the two top vote-winners," he said.
Mr Gray Jr said he believed the stadium proposal should be taken to Tasmanians via a plebiscite vote with a majority support from the state and the Bass, Braddon and Lyons electorates.
Under sustained attacks from Labor, the state government has been at pains to point out the Hobart stadium will be part of an arts, entertainment and sports precinct.
Premier Jeremy Rockliff said earlier this month a PricewaterhouseCoopers report showed the precinct at Macquarie Point would create 4200 jobs during construction and maintain 950 jobs during operation.
He said the project during construction would generate $300 million in additional economic activity and $85 million annually after it was built.
Mr Gray Snr said such a precinct would disadvantage the North even more with a loss of activity and the expenditure would starve the state of recreational and other funds for decades.
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