The election of an independent in Clark has big implications for Labor achieving majority government in the future, psephologist Kevin Bonham says.
Labor has only achieved 1.3 quotas in the count in Clark so far - a substantial drop from the 2.5 quotas achieved at the 2018 election.
Dr Bonham on Monday said this was Labor's worst result ever in a Tasmanian electorate.
IN OTHER NEWS:
"Clark has been a bit of a disaster for Labor," he said.
"There's going to be an independent there now and that's going to be a problem for them in the future.
"If you assume there is always going to be a Liberal seat, if you assume there is always going to be a Greens seat, and if you get an independent as well, then how do you win three seats in Clark?
"It's possible they could win three seats elsewhere, but a lot has to change."
Former Labor minister Julian Amos said the likely election of Clark independent candidate Kristie Johnston was the end result of Labor's lack of appeal to the middle ground.
He said besides Ella Haddad, Labor's Clark candidates were essentially anonymous and neither of them had much of a presence in Glenorchy.
Dr Amos said worse for Labor was the presence of two high-profile independent candidates in an electorate which was used to voting independent federally through Andrew Wilkie.
"Kristie Johnston and Sue Hickey were out there in the community, doing community work and representing the community in their own way so they've been rewarded to that extent," he said.
The Liberals' running quota in Clark also dropped, though not as dramatically as that for Labor, from 2.3 in 2018 to 1.9 this election.
Ms Johnston and Ms Hickey have a running quota of 0.6.
The Liberals' quota in Franklin dropped by 0.4 between the two elections whereas it dropped only by 0.1 for Labor.
Things remained the same for Labor in Lyons and there was only a minor boost for the Liberals in the electorate.
There was only a minor bump for the Liberals in Bass despite the big perceived popularity of Premier Peter Gutwein.
It was unchanged for Labor in that electorate.
There were no changes for either party in Braddon.
Braddon Labor candidate Justine Keay has polled 3975 votes so far, behind Anita Dow's 5494 votes and Shane Broad's 5857 votes.
Dr Bonham said this did not come as a surprise given the two sitting members were quite well-established.
"Yes, she does have the past of being a federal MP, but she was only there for one term and it was a somewhat disrupted term with the section 44 by-election," he said.
Dr Bonham said Labor should perhaps look for candidates other than Ms Keay if they were considering pre-selecting her for the next federal election.
"It's often a good idea to look for fresh candidates when they lose," he said.
"The Liberals re-ran Brett Whiteley and that didn't go very well."
What do you think? Send us a letter to the editor:
Political reporter for Australian Community Media, based in Hobart.
Political reporter for Australian Community Media, based in Hobart.
