The government would likely win just 11 lower house seats if an election was held today, while the Jacqui Lambie Network would probably emerge as kingmaker in the expanded 35-seat parliament, according to the results of a new poll released on Wednesday.
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The survey by research group YouGov suggested that the majority of Tasmanians want a change of government and that both of the former Liberal independents that defected last year resulting in parliamentary chaos would lose their seats.
According to YouGov, which polled more than 800 Tasmanians split evenly over the state's five electorates, the Liberals would receive 31 per cent of the vote, Labor 27 per cent, and Jacqui Lambie Network 20 per cent if an election was held now.
The Liberals' support of 31 per cent is down from the 48 per cent achieved at the 2021 state election under Premier Peter Gutwein.
Jacqui Lambie Network has been busy appointing candidates for its state campaign, and if the predictions hold true, JLN is likely to hold the balance of power in the House of Assembly after the next state election, with seven seats in total.
It would be the third-biggest party in the House of Assembly, ahead of the Tasmanian Greens.
YouGov predicted that the Greens would see their parliamentary presence increase from two to six members, taking an additional seat in the party's Clark stronghold, and adding seats in Braddon and Bass.
Clark independent Kristy Johnston was also projected to retain her seat.
In Lyons, the Greens were marginally ahead of independent John Tucker for the seventh spot, with Mr Tucker on 7 per cent support.
Independent Bass MHA Lara Alexander was projected at support of 2 per cent - well below the 12.5 per cent quota needed to secure a seat, according to the results.
Labor was likely to take two seats in every electorate, finishing with ten seats in total.
YouGov director of government Paul Smith said the polling and projections indicated that the Liberal Party was losing its grip on the state.
"The Tasmanian Liberal Party vote is currently 17 per cent lower than it was at the 2021 state election," he said.
"With only one in four voters believing the Rockliff Liberal Government deserves to be re-elected, the Liberal minority government is in deep trouble, with voters whose number one concern right now is the cost of living.
"A vote held today would break the mould of Tasmanian state politics by electing four parties to the Tasmanian Legislative Assembly.
The Jacqui Lambie Network would be the third largest party after the Liberals and Labor, ahead of the Greens."
The survey of 850 voters was conducted between December 21 and January 4.
