The Tasmanian Electoral Commission will start distribution of preferences from excluded election candidates on Tuesday next week.
This means the government will learn then if they have a majority of seats in the House of Assembly and electors in Windermere will know who will represent them for the next six years.
Tasmanian electoral commissioner Andrew Hawkey said due to Hare-Clark, all votes needed to be received before preferences began to be distributed.
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"It's like how you can't start a race until all competitors are on the line," he said.
"We've got 10 days for postal votes to come in.
"That was probably a bit excessive 20 years ago, but now it's very relevant to the processes of postal voting."
Mr Hawkey said first preferences on the postal ballots would be checked on Tuesday.
"Once we get a full formal total, we then strike the quotas which is essentially the number that each candidate needs to get to be elected," he said.
Mr Hawkey said determining the quota before all ballots were received within a reasonable time frame could be problematic in the event of a close race.
He said any change to vote counting arrangements, such as counting pre-poll votes on election day, would need to be made in Parliament through legislative amendments.
"That's not for me to decide - it's for the politicians to decide," Mr Hawkey said.
The Liberals look likely to win a second seat in Clark and one of two independent candidate will take the other seat up for grabs.
Whether Liberal candidates Madeleine Ogilvie or Simon Behrakis are elected, or independent Sue Hickey or Kristie Johnston, will be decided on the flow of preferences.
Ms Ogilvie has 3606 votes and Mr Behrakis has 3374 votes.
It is predicted that Mr Behrakis may benefit from Liberal ticket preferences, especially once fellow candidate Will Coats is excluded, and Ms Ogilvie with benefit from preferences from other candidates.
This is especially so once the independent candidates are excluded.
Ms Johnston has 6577 votes, or a progressive quota of 0.68, and Ms Hickey has 5829 votes, or a progressive quota of 0.61.
In Windermere, the race is between Liberal candidate Nick Duigan, Labor candidate Geoff Lyons, and independent candidate Will Smith.
Mr Duigan has so far won 5441 first-preference votes, Mr Lyons has won 3937 votes, and Mr Smith has won 3179 votes.
Where independent Rob Soward's votes go will determine who takes on the Liberals candidate for the end of the race.
Political reporter for Australian Community Media, based in Hobart.
Political reporter for Australian Community Media, based in Hobart.
