The Liberals are a big chance of riding Premier Peter Gutwein's coronavirus-charged popularity to a 4-1 election crushing of Labor in Bass.
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Mr Gutwein polled about 1.4 quotas on his own in the 2018 campaign, and that was when he was mostly known as the somewhat dour state Treasurer.
Since then, he inherited the top job after Will Hodgman's resignation and was almost immediately faced with the coronavirus crisis.
His management of the crisis - despite grumbling from various quarters - has overwhelmingly been seen as impressive and, if recent results for strong on borders premiers in Western Australia and Queensland are any indication, he and the Liberals are in the box seat for this election.
Given his improved profile and popularity, Mr Gutwein can be expected to poll at least two quotas in Bass by himself.
State Growth Minister Michael Ferguson should be good for a quota or close to it, based on previous results, and Health Minister Sarah Courtney can be expected to at least match and probably build upon the 5992 first preference votes (more than half a quota) she secured in the 2018 campaign.
IN OTHER NEWS:
Add in contributions from the other three Liberal candidates (Greg Kieser, Lara Alexander and Simon Wood) and the Liberals will be a live chance for four in the Northern seat.
The key threats to a rare but not unprecedented 4-1 result for the Liberals are the vagaries of Tasmania's Hare-Clark voting system and Labor's star new candidate, former Launceston mayor Janie Finlay.
Labor veteran Michelle O'Byrne will poll solidly again, although the times and Ms Finlay's presence on the ticket mean she is unlikely to match the 10,924 first preference votes she reaped in a thin Labor field in 2018.
Ms Finlay could well outpoll Ms O'Byrne on first preferences and even, if Labor only gets one seat, replace her.
She will also be crucial to Labor's hopes of holding two seats, especially as she is likely to attract a chunk of voters who are not rusted-on Labor types.
Ms Finlay has a superb election record.
That included coming within 260 votes of beating Liberal candidate and former journalist Jo Palmer - who had been widely regarded as a near certainty - in the Legislative Council seat of Rosevears in 2020.
Ms Finlay achieved that running as an independent with a Labor candidate also in the field.
In 2018, Ms Finlay was a strong second to Launceston Mayor Albert van Zetten in mayoral and councillor elections.
Whether the Bass poll produces a 4-1 or 3-2 result, sitting Labor MHA Jennifer Houston (2258 first preferences in 2018) looks a goner.
She will not outpoll Ms O'Byrne or Ms Finlay, and there is no possibility of a third Labor seat.
If the Liberals go 4-1 in Bass, it would go an enormous distance to securing a statewide Liberal majority (at least 13 of the 25 seats).
STATE OF PLAY
Liberals 3 (Peter Gutwein, Michael Ferguson, Sarah Courtney), Michelle O'Byrne, Jennifer Houston
PREDICTION
Liberals 4 (Gutwein, Ferguson, Courtney and one of Lara Alexander, Simon Wood and Greg Kieser); Labor 1 (O'Byrne or Janie Finlay).
STRONG CHANCE
Liberals 3 (Gutwein, Ferguson, Courtney); Labor 2 (O'Byrne, Finlay)
CUMULATIVE PREDICTION
TOTAL: Liberals 10; Labor 5 (with Franklin and Clark to be added).
THE ELECTORATE
Covering most of Tasmania's North-East, Bass includes the Launceston, West Tamar, Dorset, Flinders and George Town council areas.
Sean Ford
The Advocate Newspaper, Tasmania. Business, economics, politics, crime.
The Advocate Newspaper, Tasmania. Business, economics, politics, crime.
