Jen Butler, John Tucker could lose their Lyons seats in election

Liberal John Tucker and Labor's Jen Butler are the MPs under pressure to retain their seats.

Mr Tucker - from a farming and local government background - has gained little in terms of profile since being elected in a recount in 2019 to replace strong-polling Liberal veteran Rene Hidding, who resigned from parliament.

In Mr Tucker's favour, he polled a sound 3404 first preference votes in 2018, despite the significantly higher personal tallies of the other Liberal candidates, being current ministers Guy Barnett (9454) and Mark Shelton (8374), Mr Hidding (8504) and Jane Howlett (now an MLC)

However, current Liberal candidate Susie Bower has an impressive CV and could well push Mr Tucker to the kerb, assuming the Liberals do not surprise and get to four seats.

The chief executive of the Bell Bay Advanced Manufacturing Zone with a background in education and local government, Ms Bower appears to suit the times and the need for economic growth and recovery.

She looks a real chance of getting in, although Mr Tucker would probably be a slight favourite to hold his seat.

Four Liberals and just Leader Rebecca White left standing for Labor looks a slim possibility.

A very slim one, given Ms White's personal popularity (a Lyons topping 16,338 first preference votes in 2018) and the fact first-time 2018 winner Ms Butler (1616 first preferences for Labor) has built her profile since.

Northern Midlands Councillor Janet Lambert is a real chance of pushing past Ms Butler, however.

Ms Lambert was Labor's second best performer on Lyons first preferences in 2018 (1783), before being overtaken by Ms Butler.

The experienced teacher was also a competitive second to Ms Howlett in the 2018 election for the Legislative Council seat of Prosser.

Given Ms White will dominate the Labor count again, a similar or slightly better personal vote for Ms Lambert would make her competitive for the likely second Labor seat.

An unlikely 4-1 result for the Liberals would rely heavily on a "thanks, Premier" response from voters to Peter Gutwein's efforts during the coronavirus crisis.

It remains to be seen how much Mr Gutwein's personal popularity revealed in polls will play out seat by seat, especially in those like Lyons where he is not personally standing.

It should be a factor in Lyons, but it pushing the Liberals to four would be a major surprise.

NOW: Liberals 3 (Guy Barnett, Mark Shelton, John Tucker); Labor 2 (Rebecca White, Jen Butler).

2018 ELECTION: Liberals 3 (Barnett, Shelton, Rene Hidding); Labor 2 (White, Butler).

2018 QUOTAS ON FIRST PREFERENCES: Liberals, 3.03; Labor, 1.98; Greens, 0.39; Jacqui Lambie Network, 0.33; Shooters, Fishers, Farmers, 0.24.

DURING THE TERM: Hidding resigned in 2019, replaced on recount by Tucker.

Liberals 3 (Barnett, Shelton, Tucker); Labor 2 (White, Butler). Note: Susie Bower could replace Tucker for the Liberals and Labor candidate Janet Lambert could oust Butler.

Liberals 4 (with Susie Bower joining Barnett, Shelton and Tucker); Labor 1 (White). Extremely unlikely given White's expected high personal vote and a likely stronger first preference vote this time around for Butler and solid contribution from Lambert.

Braddon: Liberals 3; Labor 2.

Lyons: Liberals 3; Labor 2.

Total (with Bass, Clark and Franklin to come): Liberals 6; Labor 4.

Lyons is geographically huge by Tasmanian standards, stretching from the centre to the East Coast and the North to the South.

It includes the Break O'Day, Brighton, Central Highlands, Derwent Valley, Glamorgan-Spring Bay, Kentish, Meander Valley, Northern Midlands, Sorell, Southern Midlands and Tasman council areas, plus part of the Clarence municipality.