Braddon Liberal MHA Felix Ellis is at grave risk of getting the ejector seat regardless of how well the party fares in the state election.
Most of the risk to the former plumber and ex-political staffer comes from within his own party.
Expect long-serving Liberal MHA and Deputy Premier Jeremy Rockliff (16,612 first preferences in 2018) to again top the poll in Braddon.
The comeback attempt of former Liberal minister Adam Brooks should be successful, although the Brooks vote (10,004 first preferences in 2018) is likely to be diminished.
Mr Brooks hit difficulties starting with an estimates hearing in 2016.
He resigned as resources minister that year after he denied three times in budget estimates he had used a business email account, before correcting the record.
An Integrity Commission report in 2018 said he had deleted emails from the business account which could have damaged him politically.
He quit parliament in 2019, citing medical advice.
It followed a period of sick leave.
Liberal Housing Minister Roger Jaensch (4171 first preferences in 2018) should also outpoll Mr Ellis (1842 first preferences), partly because of his bigger profile and more prominent roles and partly because of the limited time Mr Ellis has had as an MP.
That means Mr Ellis would need the Liberals to pull off the unlikely but not impossible task of taking four of the five Braddon sets.
But even then, there's a catch.
Devonport businesswoman Stacey Sheehan is also on the Liberal Braddon ticket, and would be a huge chance out outpolling Mr Ellis and staying in front to take any fourth Liberal seat.
A well known real estate figure, Ms Sheehan also had a significant stint as Devonport Chamber of Commerce and Industry president, has a strong profile and is unlikely to scare the horses.
Mr Ellis would also be in strife should Labor manage the seemingly impossible and jag three Braddon seats.
If that was to happen, the two Liberals would be Mr Rockliff and, very much most likely, Mr Brooks, ahead of Mr Jaensch and all others.
Mr Ellis has lifted his profile and, presumably, his following in the short time he has been in parliament.
But it does not look like enough.
Labor would need a new "Elvis candidate" - someone with huge public appeal and profile - to be any chance of gaining a third seat in Braddon.
It doesn't have one.
In the absence of sideburns and jumpsuits, a third Labor winner in Braddon looks virtually impossible and retaining its current two seats looks the ALP's best possible result.
Liberal Premier Peter Gutwein's handling of the coronavirus crisis has won him plenty of admirers in Braddon, most importantly among swinging voters, and even among traditional Labor voters.
The electorate has not fully shared the jobs recovery being enjoyed in the North and South, and more jobs might go following the end of JobKeeper.
That, plus the never ending problems in the health system and a developing row over TAFE's future, give Labor some ammunition in Braddon.
If Labor holds two Braddon seats - which it should barring a tidal wave of "Gutwein Fever" pushing the Liberals to four - sitting MHAs Anita Dow (5637 first preferences in 2018) and Shane Broad (5336 first preferences in 2018) should hold their spots.
If Labor holds just one, both will be under pressure.
Dr Broad has widened his appeal since the last election and has been much more hard hitting than former Burnie mayor Ms Dow.
It might be enough for him to edge ahead of her if he needs to.
Among the non-majors, Greens lead candidate Darren Briggs has his work cut out after the party managed just 0.21 quotas on first preferences in 2018.
Left-leaning independent Craig Garland was not far off beating the entire Greens ticket on first preferences in 2018.
He will run again as an independent this time after the Local Party - for which he was going to run - was unable to register in time for the poll.
Dr Briggs might lift the Green vote to a degree, while Mr Garland will again cannibalise chunks of it, with neither expected to scrape in for a seat.
NOW: Liberals 3 (Jeremy Rockliff, Roger Jaensch, Felix Ellis); Labor 2 (Anita Dow, Shane Broad).
2018 ELECTION: Liberals 3 (Jeremy Rockliff, Adam Brooks, Roger Jaensch); Labor 2 (Anita Dow, Shane Broad).
2018 QUOTAS AFTER FIRST PREFERENCES: Liberals, 3.36; Labor, 1.64; Jacqui Lambie Network, 0.35; Greens, 0.21; Shooters, Fishers, Farmers, 0.15; Tasmanians 4 Tasmania, 0.03.
DURING THE TERM: Mr Brooks resigned in 2019, replaced on recount by Liberal Joan Rylah, Mrs Rylah resigned in 2020, replaced on recount by Mr Ellis.
Liberals 3 (Rockliff, Brooks, Jaensch), Labor 2 (Dow, Broad)
Liberals 4 (Rockliff, Brooks, Jaensch, Stacey Sheehan), Labor 1 (Broad or Dow, possibly Broad, but it would be a close thing).
Braddon takes in most of the North-West, plus the West Coast.
It includes the Devonport, Central Coast, Burnie, Waratah-Wynyard, Latrobe, Circular Head, West Coast and King Island council areas.
The Kentish municipality is in the sprawling rural electorate of Lyons.
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