The odds of a Mitch O'Neill as Tasmania's solitary Devil hunting the draft looks slim.
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Clubs have been flooding the mobile number of AFL Tasmania football manager Craig Notman often enough, asking about the state's top prospects, to give hope come Thursday's AFL D-Day.
In a season that does not contain North Launceston's Tarryn Thomas or Launceston's Chayce Jones that both went top 10 just on a year ago, the first round of 19 picks on Wednesday will barely create a ripple south of Bass Strait.
Beyond that and O'Neill, the highly-touted outside midfielder whose family are ingrained into the fabric at North Hobart, Tassie's draft pool could cause a splash.
"You never know at the draft. It only takes one club to take a real liking to you. You don't need 18 AFL clubs wanting you," Notman says.
"There are a lot of possibilities and it's the one that is prepared to call your name out at the draft. We keep our fingers crossed for our boys and hopefully it plays out the right way for them."
The pressure on O'Neill is enormous to succeed in the same season the Tasmania Devils cast its own net in the NAB League.
The two-time All-Australian had already been invited to St Kilda during the year.
The Saints don't enter the draft until pick 51.
He may not get that far.
Notman really is as high on O'Neill as he could be.
An interrupted preseason that hampered the season proper with a constant ankle niggle could not prevent the player who debuted in the TSL seniors aged 15 starring for the Devils in the state's first full program since the 2002 Mariners last appeared.
"Just from the conversations we've had, I think he is going to fit into that mid part of the draft," Notman says.
"But you can't ever totally guarantee how the draft will play out. The sort of indications we're getting at the moment is he'll fit into the second or third-round bracket.
"I am a big rap from the point of view that Mitch is a player that has been able to rise to the level he has been asked to.
"Year and a bit ago now when he played in a Futures League game on grand final day, he really lifted.
"He has played very well at NAB League level and took the next step in the Allies' program on a national level.
"He is a kid that's gone back-to-back All-Australians - there's not many that do that.
ELSEWHERE IN SPORT
"It's a feather in his cap and it shows to me the sort of player you're dealing with."
The vagaries of live trading of selections nowadays has added another dimension to the 34th annual AFL draft.
Notman has argued that can only help the chances of Tasmanians finding a club.
"It's a real interesting one because it can all change. Clubs will go into the draft just thinking that they have x amount of picks," he says.
"There will be some picks get traded up or down, there will be a future pick that will come into the process too in terms of a shuffling of picks.
"I think the big thing from that point of view is that the clubs need to deal really deeply and have really good knowledge of as much of the draft pool as they can."
He did miss out last year, but the gifted Launceston half-back is too smart of a player not to be considered.
"Not a smokey as such, but I will be very interested to see how things play out with Jared. For me, I would have no hesitation picking Jared based on the small snippet of footy and character that I see," Notman says.
"Making comparisons to draftees that I have dealt with over a number of years in different programs and he stacks up very well against a lot of those successful players.
"I think his form line as a bottom-ager stacks up very neatly and he gets to play one wildcard game and finishes off the year at Launceston in the TSL finals series so well.
"If you have someone who is a really shrewd recruiter and can actually make a call on player based on that limited exposure, I'd be hopeful that he gets an opportunity."
The state's top 19-year-olds are getting a bit of feedback.
Most eyes are on Matthew McGuiness from Lauderdale.
Notman is looking closer to his base in Launceston.
Rhyan Mansell has come up in the conversation again.
The indigenous talent in the shadow of Thomas last season at North Launceston has benefited from a full tilt every week against the top Victorians to show his wares.
"It's been pleasing to see different clubs have recognised as we have his terrific year playing as a small forward in the NAB League. He has shown he has a lot to offer at that end," Notman says.
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