Garland or Simpson? Crucial Braddon outcome should be known this afternoon

The seat will go to one of first-time Liberal candidate and Burnie deputy mayor Giovanna Simpson and regular independent candidate and fisherman Craig Garland.

The result should be known by this afternoon (April 6)

If Mr Garland wins, that will hold the Liberals to just 14 of 35 seats in the next parliament.

That will mean the Liberals to govern will need a level of cooperation from not only the three Jacqui Lambie Network winners, but at least one other MP.

Unless the Liberals break their word and seek a deal with the Greens, the other MP would have to be one of the three independents (assuming Mr Garland is elected).

The other two are former Labor leader David O'Byrne and Kristie Johnston.

Ms Simpson winning would get the Liberals to 15, meaning they could govern with the cooperation of the JLN alone.

The Liberals ended the last term two short of a majority.

If Ms Simpson misses out, they will start the new term four short of a majority.

The cut-up of Greens Braddon lead candidate Darren Briggs' votes will decide which of Ms Simpson and Mr Garland is elected.

The next step will be the distribution of JLN candidate James Redgrave's 4781 votes.

That is likely to get JLN colleague Miriam Beswick (5011) over a quota (8875 votes) or so close it won't matter.

Either way, she will be elected.

So will Labor's Shane Broad, who is currently just 67 votes short of a quota.

Unless something highly unexpected happens with Mr Redgrave's preferences, Dr Briggs (4901) will be next to go.

That would leave Ms Simpson and Mr Garland in a shootout for the last seat.

Counting will also continue in Bass and Lyons today, while Clark and Franklin have been finalised.

The Tasmanian Electoral Commission said counting would be completed by the afternoon.