Recent developments on the subject suggest he may be in the tractor considerably earlier.

Reeling from the resignations of fellow Northern Liberals Lara Alexander and John Tucker this week, Rockliff insisted he had been "always open, transparent, consultative with our team" throughout the process.

If even his own party members dispute this, it is difficult not to sympathise with the growing number of opponents sharing their views, thousands of whom attended an anti-stadium rally in Hobart on Saturday.

The attendance on Parliament Lawns was comparable to that of 6310 across the River Derwent watching North Melbourne getting thumped at one of Tasmania's pre-existing perfectly acceptable AFL stadia now suddenly deemed unacceptable by the national competition.

The only remaining Liberal government in the country could be brought down by all this, leaving Australia redder than a holidaying Pom on the Gold Coast.

Peter Gutwein famously vowed he would not govern in minority. However, having inherited and seemingly delivered his predecessor's highest-profile project, Rockliff has no such qualms.

It is not unreasonable for Tasmanian taxpayers to be told what those taxes have been spent on.

While it has been widely reported that the Macquarie Point stadium has an initial price tag of $715 million, many have justifiably questioned what the real long-term cost of this project will be - most notably this week's political defectors.

Alexander received just 511 first preference votes at the 2021 state election - the fewest of any Liberal or Labor candidate in Bass, and the second lowest among the 19-candidate field. Tucker fared little better in Lyons. But the pair snuck in on recounts following the resignations of high profile Liberals Sarah Courtney and Rene Hidding respectively.

Paradoxically, Tucker actually has more in common with Rockliff than their original party allegiances. Growing up on a sheep farm near St Helens and completing a Diploma in Farm Management, he would have had much to discuss with his former boss, if they were still talking.

However, the wonders of Tasmania's Hare-Clark voting system means these two also-rans could end up holding the reins of the winning horse.

Suddenly, Independents were running the show.

Legislative Council member Meg Webb said the onus is now on the Rockliff government to earn back Tasmanians' trust by committing to full transparency on the AFL stadium deal.

Webb called the loss of two backbenchers "a case of chickens coming home to roost" for Rockliff. Another scenario which should be all too familiar for farmer Jez.

"Arrogance has brought the government to its parliamentary knees," Webb said, before emphasising the buzzword she wanted highlighted. "They arrogantly dismissed the concerns, questions and warnings raised by many Tasmanians.

"With this overweening arrogance came a disregard for due diligence, proper inclusive process, accountability and transparency."

Andrew Wilkie, an Independent of Federal persuasion, told parliament the 23,000-seat arena would look "at best like a monument to stupidity, at worst like a giant bedpan".

It was hardly a ringing endorsement.

The upshot of all this is that Rockliff is left with no majority in the House of Assembly.

Tasmanians, whether for or against the stadium, are still wondering what exactly was signed over by Rockliff and how long this particular southern royal albatross will hang around the state's financial neck.

The AFL could not have made it clearer that there would be no Tasmanian team without a superfluous third stadium complete with a ludicrously-pointless roof, although they didn't use those exact words.

Rockliff's government haven't been slow to pass this message on to the state's die-hard footy fans among their new detractors, developing the mantra: "If you kill the stadium, you kill the team, and you kill the dream."

This is, in effect, passing on a blackmail demand with "don't shoot the messenger" scribbled in the margin. In crayon.

And all the while Gillon McLachlan sits on his private island, stroking his cat surrounded by more Tasmanian gold than even the Beaconsfield mine could ever produce.

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