Tasmanian independent MHA Madeleine Ogilvie has "no plans" to defect to the Liberal Party.
The former Labor member for Clark had been widely tipped to join the Liberal Party before the end of 2020.
However, despite election analyst Dr Kevin Bonham saying she will struggle to retain her seat at the election due by March 2022, Ms Ogilvie is content to stay as an independent.
"I am loving my role as an independent, it gives me the freedom to advocate on issues that matter to people," Ms Ogilvie said.
"I have no plans to make a change.
"I am really focussed on making sure everyone has access to healthcare, getting more houses built and landing jobs for my constituents.
"Delivering real results for real people feels good."
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A senior Liberal source conceded "it's not going to happen".
"If she was going to do it she would have done it a while ago," he said.
"I don't think the government needs her and I'm not sure that voters like turncoats anyway.
"The party will now go in with a clean ticket."
Ms Ogilvie is a fan of Premier Peter Gutwein and has a good relationship with Liberal ministers including fellow Clark MHA and Attorney-General Elise Archer.
A question mark remains as to whether outspoken Speaker Sue Hickey will stand again in Clark and also whether she will get pre-selection by the Liberals.
Dr Bonham said the big question was whether Ms Hickey would run again.
"My feeling is that it will be quite challenging for Ms Ogilvie to be re-elected as an independent because she didn't have a high voter base previously," he said.
"I haven't seen any direct polling and I'm not certain how much attention she has in the electorate - I'm not sure who she'd appeal to.
"It will be tough."
Dr Bonham said he was not sure whether Liberal Party members and voters would have supported any move by Ms Ogilvie to join the party.
"In 1956 a Labor minister Carrol Bramich crossed the floor forcing an election. He went on and was elected as a Liberal member for Darwin, now Braddon.
"It is an ancient precedent of party hopping and I'm sure a lot of Labor people would say the Liberals can have her.
"My feelings are her prospects would be stronger if she stood as a Liberal rather than as an independent."
Ms Ogilvie was elected as a Labor member in 2014 but was defeated at the 2018 election.
When Labor's Scott Bacon quit in September 2019, Ms Ogilvie returned to Parliament but chose to sit as an independent.