After the state turned almost entirely red at the 2016 federal election, the Tasmanian Liberals were left licking their wounds despite the party winning government nationally.
The so-called Three Amigos of the Liberal Party - Bass MHR Andrew Nikolic, Braddon MHR Brett Whiteley and Lyons MHR Eric Hutchinson - were each defeated after only having served one term.
And so, unexpectedly, Tasmania became a big talking point in the post-election wash-up, as the Liberals stared down a 6.1 per cent statewide swing against them.
In Bass, Mr Nikolic was summarily beaten by Labor challenger Ross Hart, copping a 10.1 per cent swing against him. The Liberals laid the blame at the door of powerful activist group GetUp! for launching an aggressive campaign in a bid to oust the local member.
Mr Whiteley, meanwhile, saw his seat fall to Labor candidate Justine Keay in Braddon (the pair fought it out once more in a 2018 byelection, with Ms Keay narrowly winning). The ALP enjoyed a 4.76 per cent swing in favour of it.
Then there was Mr Hutchinson, who suffered a 3.5 per cent swing against him, being shown the door by Labor's Brian Mitchell.
Suddenly, four of Tasmania's five House of Representatives seats belonged to Labor, with Franklin MHR Julie Collins' margin remaining unassailable.
So why does Prime Minister Scott Morrison seem so intent on winning Bass and Braddon this time around? You could even argue that he appears confident of picking up both both these seats.
The Liberals thought they could win Lyons too - at least initially. But since their candidate Jessica Whelan was disendorsed amid a social media scandal, the party is pinning its hopes on Nationals candidate Deanna Hutchinson.
Mr Morrison has visited Bass more than twice the number of times Opposition Leader Bill Shorten has during the campaign. And seat polling - including internal Liberal polling - has shown that Liberal candidate Bridget Archer could well wrest the electorate from Mr Hart.
Initial party polling had the pair locked in a dead heat but a later poll from the Australian Forest Products Association had Ms Archer with a seat-winning lead over her adversary, barreling towards 54 per cent of the primary vote.
Labor has shied away from releasing their own polling for Bass. But ALP insiders are quietly confident that Mr Hart will retain the seat and their hopes were buoyed further when a Newspoll for Bass was released in the final week of the campaign, which had Mr Hart with a 4 per cent lead over Ms Archer on a two-party preferred basis (52-48).
Mr Morrison spoke to Sky News upon arriving at a polling booth at Ulverstone on Saturday, following a stop-in at Norwood to greet locals and wish Ms Archer all the best (as well as a happy birthday). His visit to Tasmania preceded him travelling to his home of the Sutherland Shire in Sydney to cast his vote.
Telling sign that Scott Morrison has bolted down to Tasmania on Election Day in seat of Bass - a Labor Loss in Tasmania crucial for Libs to keep dream alive of being able to form minority government - sounded like Bill Shorten was staying put in Melb today ? https://t.co/zZsFBkrou4— 𝕤𝕒𝕞𝕒𝕟𝕥𝕙𝕒 𝕞𝕒𝕚𝕕𝕖𝕟 (@samanthamaiden) May 18, 2019
"These are the seats that are going to decide who the next prime minister is," he said, referring to Bass and Braddon. "Tasmania, in significant ways, is going to decide what happens in this election."
Bass has been seen as a bellwether seat in the past and is prone to wild swings against incumbents. Neither Mr Hart's margin nor Ms Keay's in Braddon could be considered at all safe.
The Prime Minister obviously believes the Coalition is in with a chance in the North and North-West of Tasmania. More importantly, he seems to think his re-election chances hinge on the state. His appearance in Bass and Braddon on Saturday morning rammed this point home.
The question is: could the capricious voters of Tasmania boot their first-term Labor representatives out as readily as they did the Three Amigos in 2016?