Liberal win but party mix unclear


ONE day out from the election political observers agree the Liberals are certain to claim victory tomorrow, but few are willing to predict the exact make-up of Tasmania's next parliament.

"It's all over," says psephologist Kevin Bonham, after polling by Newspoll shows the Liberals will secure 53 per cent of the vote.

"I expect them to win quite heavily by Hare-Clark standards," Dr Bonham predicted.

Political academic Dr Richard Herr says it's the Liberals' election to lose, and the Hare-Clark system does not give one-sided results.

"Polling shows the Liberals are likely to pick up three seats, but in the Hare-Clark system, where in fact those actual seats come from, isn't certain," he said.

"The fact is, while overall trend suggests 13 is likely, 14 isn't impossible, it comes back to the dynamics and uncertainty of Hare-Clark," Dr Herr said.

Richard Eccleston, political scientist at the University of Tasmania, says where the Palmer United Party vote ends up will be significant.

"Preferences will ultimately determine the composition of the opposition benches," Dr Eccleston said.

Unions Tasmania secretary Kevin Harkins says it looks like the Liberals will win more than the other parties.

"But who knows," he said.

Tasmanian Chamber of Commerce and Industry deputy chairwoman Susan Parr says it is too hard to predict the exact outcome under the Hare-Clark system.

"Just because you get the most votes doesn't mean you win majority government," Ms Parr said.


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