Given how gambling to Australians is as generic as gun ownership to Americans - and about as well legislated - it doesn't take much internet searching to ascertain that Hawthorn are the current favourites for this year's AFL wooden spoon.
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Two of the better known among the several thousand online gaming sites devoted to Australian sport have the Hawks listed as $2.00 and even $1.75 to finish last this season.
With the halcyon days of four consecutive grand final appearances, back-to-back-to-back premierships and annual global television exposure nearly half of Harry Sheezel's lifetime ago, and Mount Wellington-sized question marks looming over what might or might not ever happen at Macquarie Point, there is no better time to question the value of Tasmania's AFL sponsorship arrangement.
Running since 2001, it is the deal by which all others are judged, and the envy of all Hawthorn's rivals.
The latest renewal in January confirmed that the Hawks would continue to play four games a season (plus one pre-season) at UTAS Stadium until the end of 2025 in return for $13.5 million from the Tasmanian government.
When superstars like Lance Franklin, Luke Hodge, Shaun Burgoyne and Sam Mitchell were parading around the MCG with the premiership cup over their heads and the word "Tasmania" on their chest before a huge international television audience it appeared to be money very well spent.
For three years running, the Hawks followed their MCG wins with celebratory trips to their "home from home" for endless renditions of the club song mumbled along by hungover players in sunglasses.
The club's generation of Tasmanian supporters lapped it up, selfies were taken and merchandise signed - and that was just for the politicians.
Liberal and Labor parties alike saw value in the arrangement, Tweeted their photos with the premiership cup and kept re-signing the deal.
However, since thrashing West Coast in the 2015 grand final to claim their 13th premiership, Hawthorn have not won a final. Only twice have they featured in September, going out in straight sets in both 2016 and 2018.
Household names like Franklin, Hodge and Burgoyne have been replaced by Fergus Greene, Connor McDonald and Jai Newcombe - barely household names in their own households. And while Mitchell remains as coach instead of player, he can no longer simply get the team out of trouble by calling on arguably the most ambidextrous feet in footy history.
Furthermore, the Tasmanian Government's flirtation with a second AFL sweetheart coincided with the Hawks becoming increasingly impotent.
The state's two love interests squared up in Launceston earlier this month and although the Hawks' 19-point victory bucked recent trends, the attendance of 11,007 for the unofficial "Tasmanian derby" hardly presented a compelling case for continued investment.
Some would suggest that declining attendances in Launceston are due to Hawthorn fans' reluctance to adhere to their club song by riding the bumps with a grin.
Others would point to the soap opera that is Tasmania's push for the league's 19th licence with neither the AFL nor the Tasmanian Government covering themselves in glory over a scenario which appears increasingly reliant on securing federal government funding towards a $715 million third elite venue in the state.
With each passing week in the saga, new revelations come to light suggesting the Tasmanian public - who, after all, are the ones paying for the building - are not being told all the facts about it.
Just last week it emerged that Test and one-day international cricket matches - which had been included among the required 44 annual events in the State Government's business case - could not be played at the proposed fixed-roof venue.
This followed repeated momentum swings in which the Tasmanian AFL Taskforce (remember them?) business case and subsequent Colin Carter report (remember that?) unequivocally stated that Tasmania should have its own team only for the AFL to ignore both and unilaterally decide that a superfluous stadium was a pre-requisite for a licence.
Tasmania's pristine waters have been repeatedly muddied.
Suddenly something smells off and nobody is comfortable swallowing it.
Meanwhile, the State Government is not short of rivals for its sporting dollar.
The Examiner revealed last Tuesday that the state's hugely successful road cycling team - which, for two decades has supported our top riders, including Richie Porte, and catapulted half a dozen more into the elite WorldTour ranks - was seeking financial backing.
Hoping to re-brand itself as Tasmania BridgeLane, the team would become a mobile lycra billboard across Europe and Asia encouraging visitation to our shores. Porte and fellow Tour de France star Cadel Evans happily put their names and clout behind the push which is understood to be in the region of $300,000 per year.
Plenty of other sports and events also have their bowls out asking for more - from the Mountain Bike World Series to Targa Tasmania, Christmas Carnivals to Supercars.
The Tasmanian Government must decide which horses to back.
Fortunately there is no shortage of gambling sites available to provide the best odds.
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