Liberal Gavin Pearce pulled off a stunner, holding Braddon convincingly when it was widely thought he might struggle.
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The one-term Liberal will head back to Canberra with what looks like ending up as a significantly stronger margin.
At the time of writing, Mr Pearce had achieved a 3.39 per cent swing in his direction, despite the government's recent run of difficulties nationally.
That had him on a projected total of 56.48 per cent, two-candidate preferred.
Former soldier Mr Pearce had 43.99 per cent of primary votes at the time of writing, more than doubling Labor challenger Chris Lynch (21.87 per cent).
That was with more than 26,000 votes counted.
The swing to Mr Pearce emerged in the first booths tallied, largely in smaller, rural-type areas.
There was some thought Mr Lynch could claw things back in the cities and the electorate's bigger towns, but Mr Pearce kept building his advantage as more results emerged.
"It's very positive," Mr Pearce said during the night.
Mr Pearce told supporters he felt humble and grateful.
He said regional electorates tended to be well connected.
"If they don't like you, they let you know in no uncertain terms," he said.
Mr Lynch, a Burnie Councillor, said he could not really answer why Labor was behind.
He said he had been well supported by Labor, with 14 shadow ministers - including Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese four times - visiting the region in the lead-up to the election.
He said he believed Labor had "pretty good policies".
Mr Pearce won Braddon from Labor's Justine Keay in 2019, achieving a 4.82 per cent swing.
Going into this election, he held the seat with a margin of 3.09 per cent.
As well as Mr Pearce and Mr Lynch, eight other candidates contested Braddon.
They were Ludo Mineur (Pauline Hanson's One Nation), Darren Briggs (Australian Greens), Scott Rankin (Local Party), Darren Bobbermien (United Australia Party), Craig Garland (independent), Keone Martin (Animal Justice Party), Sophie Lehmann (Jacqui Lambie Network) and Duncan White (Liberal Democrats).
Ms Lehmann was running third at the time of writing, with 9.42 per cent of primary votes, ahead of serial candidate Mr Garland (8.62 per cent).
Dr Briggs was on 6.52 per cent, with a swing of 1.65 per cent to the Greens.
New entrant the Local Party struggled, with Mr Rankin on just 1.04 per cent.
The United Australia Party also flunked, despite a big advertising spend.
It had just 1.46 per cent of the vote, with a 2.33 per cent swing against it.
One Nation also fell back, but still had nearly 5 per cent of first preferences.
