Labor will certainly be hoping so.

The seat has changed five times in the last six full elections, starting in 2004 when Labor's Sid Sidebottom lost to Liberal Mark Baker after Liberal prime minister John Howard gazumped Labor leader Mark Latham on forestry policy.

We say "full elections" because there was also the 2018 by-election which saw Labor's Justine Keay retain the seat after she was one of the group of MPs who resigned over citizenship issues.

The seat is currently held for the Liberals by former soldier Gavin Pearce, who has also been involved with farming and the RSL.

Labor is running musician, teacher and VET worker Chris Lynch, also known as a Burnie councillor.

There are various other candidates, but one of those two will win the seat in Saturday's election.

Mr Pearce has been an uncontroversial MP.

He argues the Morrison Government is delivering for the region.

Mr Lynch is also unlikely to scare the horses.

There is little evidence so far revelations of a methylamphetamine trafficking conviction from 1994 have done him much damage.

He was found guilty of having in his possession, for sale, a quantity of methylamphetamine valued at about $1200, and said recently it led to a "lifetime of regret".

Mr Pearce won the seat from Ms Keay in 2019 and holds it with a margin of 3.09 per cent.

LEADERSHIP: Local candidates can only do so much in terms of winning votes and many voters are not terribly fussed about Candidate A versus Candidate B.

How much Prime Minister Scott Morrison's struggles will influence the result will be an important factor.

Unlike in 2019, voters have now had a full term to see Mr Morrison as PM.

There is also the question of whether Labor Leader Anthony Albanese will attract extra voters to the Labor tent based on his own level of appeal.

ROSEBERY MINE: The long-term future of one of the region's key employers is in doubt, with miner MMG Limited caught between the need for a new tailings storage facility to carry the mine past 2024 and fierce environmentalist opposition.

Mr Lynch was wishy-washy on the issue earlier on, now Mr Pearce's government has added more uncertainty to the mix.

Politically, it's probably a nil-all draw at this stage.

JOBS/ECONOMY: Jobs and the economy are always key issues in Braddon.

Like the nation and Tasmania, the electorate is performing strongly by historical standards in terms of jobs.

However, fast-rising inflation and, lately, interest rate hikes are putting the hurts on middle income residents, let alone low income ones, especially as incomes are not generally keeping up with costs.

It is not all the government's fault, but Labor and union attacks over these issues are having some effect, as is widespread public concern.

That means there are unhappy voters out there who will solely or partly blame the government, denting the Liberals' claims to be better economic managers.

HEALTH: Credible polling tends to show health as a key political issue in Tasmania, and Braddon, with its relatively old population, is no different.

Both sides have made Braddon health announcements, but both also appear to have underplayed health issues, relative to their local importance.

Maybe a slight Labor win.

SPENDING MEASURES: It seems you only have to wander around in a sports uniform in Braddon before one or both big parties throw money at you.

It doesn't swing many (any?) voters, as it's what people expect politicians to do.

Just ask Steve Martin.

The former Nationals Senator was the Energiser Bunny of grants in his last election campaign.

He granted here. He granted there. He still got rolled.

MAJORITY RULES: Dislike of minority government is an important factor for many Tasmanian voters.

It is possible they will "herd" in some numbers to whichever big party they think is favourite.

THE SWINGERS: The key swing group is those who might vote for either big party.

ANGRY LIBERALS: Will they shift their votes to Labor or elsewhere?

Betting agency sportsbet.com.au on Wednesday had Mr Lynch at $1.65 to win the seat and Mr Pearce at $2.10.