Tasmania looks to be back into jobs growth, with the full employment gains expected from the December 15 border reopening still to come.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics estimated Tasmanian payroll jobs increased by 0.5 per cent in the fortnight to October 30.
This newspaper estimates that would be in the order of 1000-1100 extra jobs.
The increase, after a run of weakness, left payroll jobs an estimated 4 per cent above where they were on October 31 last year.
The ABS estimated payroll employment increased in every state and territory during the fortnight, except Queensland, which was steady.
The ACT (4.4 per cent), Victoria (2.6 per cent) and New South Wales (1.9 per cent) had the strongest gains, with national payroll jobs up by 1.4 per cent
The figures follow the ABS' October labour force release on November 11, covering the period from September 26 until October 9.
That estimated employed Tasmanians decreased by 2000, compared with a month earlier.
The good news was that full-time employment increased by 900 people, to be 11,300 ahead of the number a year earlier.
Part-time employment was estimated to have fallen by 2900 people in a month.
Tasmanian jobs vanished in droves last year when coronavirus and the associated economic crash rocked the state, but recovered strongly.
They have been up and down in recent months, according to the ABS, but remain well above the crash levels of mid-2020.
Demographer Lisa Denny said there appeared to be a rise in vacancies, particularly in the medical, allied health and care sector, despite the recent slide in Tasmanian employment.
"This suggests that we are struggling to fill some positions that are in high demand and that the people available to work don't always have the requisite knowledge, skills and experience," Dr Denny said.
"It is critically important to fill skill shortages as the flow-on effects for other roles and organisational productivity is considerable.
"To do this, it is important to deeply understand the skills sought and the motivations to work in the area and design a recruitment - both for attraction and retention - strategy around those parameters.
"With changing attitudes to work and life in the post-pandemic era and, given the attraction of the Tasmanian lifestyle, it may mean that employers need to rethink their employment offerings and models."
Dr Denny said employing appropriate skilled and qualified workers increased organisations' capacity to employ and train extra workers.
"In addition to recruitment strategies, it is also critical to provide the appropriate education and training based on sectoral and occupational demand, including opportunities to enter or re-enter the workforce, retrain or upskill," she said.
"This effort will also need to be supported by communicating and promoting the opportunities for employment in specific sectors, noting again what motivations and restrictions exist in attracting and enabling people to work.
"Where the education and training is not provided in Tasmania for jobs in high demand, we need to ask the question why?"
"The lack of the education and training in Tasmania exacerbates the shortages and requires attraction of people, and often their families, from elsewhere.
"And, despite popular opinion, mobility within Australia has actually declined over time and is yet to recover to pre-pandemic levels.
"Which then means that if education and training is not available in Tasmania, then it is critical to develop relationships with providers who can educate and train Tasmanians so that a pipeline of skills can be established."
The border reopening is expected to lead to a strong boost in tourism and accommodation-related jobs.
The Reserve Bank expects national employment to bounce back quickly as movement restrictions are eased.
"A strong recovery in hours worked was already under way and forward-looking indicators of labour demand were consistent with strong employment over the coming months," the central bank said in the minutes from its November interest rates meeting.
"The unemployment rate (currently 5.2 per cent) was expected to trend lower over the subsequent couple of years, to reach 4 per cent by the end of 2023."
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