Renewal, plague and reckoning: an extraordinary year in Tasmanian politics

He'd barely warmed his seat before a plague struck.

And that was just the beginning of the year.

In other news:

For our state's political leaders, the COVID-19 pandemic represented perhaps the greatest challenge of their careers.

Trying to predict what 2021 will bring is a daunting prospect. But it's worth taking stock of all that occurred in 2020, which is poised to go down as the most extraordinary year in Tasmania's political history.

He was once the country's longest serving opposition leader. But, eventually, Will Hodgman became an immensely popular premier (though he wasn't without his detractors).

In a shock announcement in January, Hodgman resigned, citing a desire to spend more time with his family. Recently, he was named Australia's next High Commissioner to Singapore.

His departure left a leadership void, and two ambitious cabinet ministers were equally keen to fill it.

A clash between the moderates and the conservatives in the Liberal Party ensued in the wake of the premier's resignation. Both camps marshalled their proverbial troops.

On the moderate side was Treasurer Peter Gutwein; for the conservatives there was Infrastructure Minister Michael Ferguson.

After a tense weekend during which Liberal MPs were lobbied heavily, it became increasingly clear that Gutwein would prevail. Ferguson pulled out of the contest at the eleventh hour, paving the way for Gutwein to become the next Premier of Tasmania.

It was easy to be hoodwinked into thinking that the coronavirus would never touch us here in little old Tasmania.

But in early March, we recorded our first of more than 200 cases of COVID-19.

Less than three weeks later, in a bid to ward off the spread of the virus, our newly minted Premier declared a state of emergency and announced "the toughest border measures in the country", erecting the walls of what would come to be known as Fortress Tasmania.

Problems continued to mount, however, after a former passenger of the ill-fated Ruby Princess cruise ship was admitted to the North West Regional Hospital on March 20 - it was the beginning of what would become one of the most serious coronavirus outbreaks in the country. It spawned 138 cases of the virus, and led to at least 10 deaths.

State government-run quarantine hotels were stood up, where non-essential travellers to Tasmania would have to isolate.

As March came to an end, the Premier told Tasmanians they'd need to stay home for four weeks unless they were buying essential supplies, accessing essential services, going to work or school, exercising or leaving home for compassionate care reasons.

A nation-leading economic and social support package was rolled out, eventually exceeding $1 billion.

In other words, March was a month we won't soon forget.

By the halfway point of the year, Tasmanians were still mostly confined to their homes. It was at this point that Gutwein began gradually to lift coronavirus restrictions, including opening up hospitality venues with limits on patron numbers.

While in the early days of the pandemic, our politicians eschewed their usual partisan squabbling for the good of the state, it was objections to government restrictions that ended up heralding a regression to the mean.

Opposition racing spokesman David O'Byrne started publicly questioning the decision to put a halt to the racing industry, which was a move peculiar to Tasmania.

Oppositions the nation over had the unenviable task this year of trying to influence public debate as the popularity of incumbent leaders surged, as tends to happen in times of crisis.

And no premier was more popular than Peter Gutwein.

It certainly wasn't the start to his premiership that he would have anticipated, but Gutwein appeared to strike an immediate chord with voters nonetheless.

A March poll conducted by EMRS had the new Premier trailing Opposition Leader Rebecca White in the preferred leader ratings by two points.

Come September, though, new polling showed the Premier's popularity had skyrocketed over the course of the pandemic, opening up a 47 point chasm between he and Ms White.

Gutwein's approval ratings came back down to earth somewhat in EMRS' latest poll, falling 9 points to 61 per cent, while the Labor leader clawed back three points to bring herself to 26 per cent.

The December poll showed that 52 per cent of decided voters were siding with the Liberals, while 25 per cent were backing Labor.

While the government's response to the COVID-19 crisis has been widely lauded, Gutwein and his ministers have faced controversies and suffered embarrassments, too.

The Premier flashed an aggressive streak when he lashed out at calls for the government to reveal the recipients of small business hardship grants doled out at the height of the crisis. The government's reputation for secrecy only grew when a report found Tasmanian government agencies were 750 per cent more likely to refuse to release information under right to information laws.

Human Services Minister Roger Jaensch was accused of misleading parliament after saying he wasn't aware of a government plan to change the state's tenancy laws to make it easier to evict people.

More recently, Labor and the Greens have piled pressure on Police Minister Mark Shelton and Sport Minister Jane Howlett, who they say are weak performers and unfit to hold ministerial portfolios.

Following the release of the state budget, the Premier announced that a commission of inquiry would be established to probe widespread historic allegations of child sex abuse within the state service. It came after shocking revelations about the alleged crimes of the late paediatric nurse James Geoffrey Griffin, who worked at the Launceston General Hospital for close to two decades.

Tasmania's borders officially reopened to all states and territories late last month, with the moat being lowered to Victoria in the wake of that state's deadly second wave.

Immense challenges still remain for the tourism industry, as the international visitor market remains closed for the foreseeable future.

Meanwhile, the next state election is due by March 2022, meaning next year will be one in which the major parties begin to clearly set out their opposing policy platforms.

But 2021 will also be a year defined by the commission of inquiry, which is likely to be distressing and sobering for Tasmanians.

Whatever lies ahead, the people of this state have proved their resilience in this most extraordinary year, aided by solid leadership from their government.

As is sometimes said, though, a week is a long time in politics, let alone a year. We'll need those who represent us to continue to perform if we're to emerge relatively intact from the COVID crisis.

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