IT SOUNDS like science fiction – volcano-like storms raining down lava and burning everything in their path.
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But University of Tasmania’s Professor David Bowman insists ‘‘super fires’’ are very real and will rip through Tasmania in the coming decades.
Professor Bowman and his team of experts in Hobart are researching the dependability of the state’s bushfire behaviour prediction system.
He believes Tasmania needs to upgrade its current science as soon as possible, otherwise the state will struggle to overcome the threat of catastrophic bushfires in years to come.
‘‘We haven’t really seen a super fire yet, but Dunalley would be seen as a firecracker in comparison,’’ Professor Bowman said.
‘‘There are places in Tasmania that, with the right combination, can host really extreme fires that we haven’t seen in living memory.’’
Firefighters Australia-wide currently predict bushfire behaviour by analysing wind direction and what kind of slope the fire is travelling on.
This formula enables crews to estimate the speed of the fire and how much time they have to be ready for their next move.
By analysing a particular smoke plume from the Dunalley bushfires in January 2013, however, Professor Bowman and his team expect to gain an understanding of how effective that system would be in a catastrophic bushfire.
‘‘We have pretty good short-range predictive modelling. It’s quite useful for fire fighting, but the problem is if you have a fire that goes into an unpredictable state then there’s so many different factors that the science can’t handle it anymore, which leads to unpredictable outcomes.’’
Professor Bowman – the university’s long-serving environmental change expert – has studied climate change-related disasters, like super fires, across the globe.
He concedes that super fires ‘‘are absolutely beyond human control’’.
‘‘In some cases, you can get a slurry of burning material in the atmosphere. Towering emissions can collapse in on themselves and create an atmospheric volcano and lava-like material which can rain down and burn everything in its path. You can imagine how terrifying this is, chunks of bark and charcoal flying out of the sky.
‘‘Everything is stepping up, but what we haven’t had a really shocking fire season yet. I’m very, very worried.’’
A Tasmania Fire Service spokesman said every bushfire season was concerning and uncontrollable bushfires would always be an issue for crews, regardless of what technology they had.
The TFS and Professor Bowman agree that the best weapon in the fight against fires is prevention.
‘‘Every summer I’m worried,’’ Professor Bowman said.
‘‘I’m not crying wolf, and everyone needs to begin to think about the summer now and what they’re going to do. They need to ask themselves, ‘what am I going to do if catastrophic fire conditions are forecast’. If you can’t answer that then you need to research more and have a plan.’’
The TFS is expected to begin preparations for this year’s bushfire season next month.
People who live in or near the bush should prepare a bushfire survival plan.
The plan should outline what you are going to do to prepare your home for bushfire and what you are going to do if a bushfire approaches.
The TFS has encouraged the public to view its online Bushfire Survival Plan booklet, Leave Early Checklist, Stay and Defend Checklist and have an emergency kit.