A political analyst referred to the Jacqui Lambie Network as a populist minor party bubble, and says a recent poll suggesting a seven seat win for the party should not be ignored.
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Tasmanian analyst Kevin Bonham analysed the latest polling from YouGov which showed that the Liberals would hold a minority government with 11 seats, and Labor would win 10.
According to the data, the rest of the 35 member parliament would consist of seven seats for the Jacqui Lambie Network (JLN), six seats for the Greens, and one independent.
The poll showed that the JLN was gaining favour in Lyons, even above the major parties, and scored more votes in Bass and Braddon than the Greens.
Mr Bonham said the likelihood of seven seats in an election was a fantasy, but added that the poll should not be dismissed as rubbish
Looking at the 2018 election results, Mr Bonham said the JLN got 3.2 per cent of the statewide vote when they ran in three seats.
He said if the JLN got 8 per cent of the vote at the next election, this would result in three seats.
"I don't believe JLN would actually get 20 per cent in an election held now, and I'll be amazed if they get that when this bumpy term is finally submitted to the judgement of a baffled electorate," Mr Bonham said.
"But ... something like that percentage [of voters] might pick JLN when offered a limited range of options."
Mr Bonnham said he did not believe the YouGov poll numbers would be seen on election day, but it raised concerns for the Liberal government.
"If it is short of a majority, it may struggle to find anyone to form government with. This has become more acute with the recent threat to confidence and supply from John Tucker," Mr Bonham said.
"Even if any deal could be negotiated between the government and the whole of the JLN grouping, it would be only a matter of time before someone from the latter grouping split and brought down the government."
