Liberals recover after steep decline in May, EMRS poll shows

Support for the Liberals increased to 38 per cent, from 36 per cent back in May, but was still well below the 42 per cent support it enjoyed in February and the party's peak level of support of 49 per cent back in December 2021.

Support for the Liberals in August was 6 percentage points ahead of Labor's support, at 32 per cent, which was a 1 percentage point increase over the May result.

The research was based on a poll of 1000 Tasmanians conducted between August 15 and 21.

It also showed that Jeremy Rockliff has regained the position of preferred premier, after Labor Leader Rebecca White took a two-point lead over him in May.

EMRS managing director Paul Jamrozik said the results were an indication that no party has delivered a knockout blow in the state.

"The August poll shows that voter support is stable and that none of the three main parties have been able to make up significant ground after the steep decline in Liberal support in May," he said.

"Labor's support has increased just one point, while support for the Greens currently stands at 14 per cent, down one point from 15 per cent in May.

"Although the government is currently six points ahead of the Labor opposition in voter support, their lead has halved since February."

It was too soon to tell whether the results indicate a "sustained rebound" for the government, after the May poll was conducted around the time of several widely publicised Liberal setbacks, he said.

Those setbacks included the defection of two of its members to the crossbench in May - Bass MHA Lara Alexander and Lyons MHA John Tucker.

The event pushed the government into minority, forcing it to negotiate with independents or Labor to pass its bills.

After a three-point rise in support for independent candidates or other minor parties, to 18 per cent in May, the August poll result saw independent support falling back, to 16 per cent.

Commenting on the results on social media, political analyst Kevin Bonham said the poll result was Labor's highest level of support since the start of the pandemic.

"But being 6 per cent behind this government is not exactly great-going in the circumstances," he wrote on the X platform, formerly known as Twitter.

"Hard to project what sort of hung parliament those numbers would produce."

Tasmania is not due for another election until June 2025.

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