Voices movement that knocked Tony Abbott to enter Tassie politics

The Greens, the Jacquie Lambie Network and numerous independents have crunched the numbers and figured out that majority government for either Labor or the Liberals will be much less likely at the next state election, which is due by 2025.

The Greens have indicated they will boost their efforts across the state in the next election, while Jacquie Lambie recently confirmed plans to seek a number of candidates to contest state seats.

With the House of Assembly's increase, the vote quota needed to win a seat will drop from 16.6 per cent down to 12.5 per cent, according to University of Tasmania political expert Dr Richard Herr.

"There's a new dynamic on the election and the prospects for winning are now going to be much greater," he said.

One of the political movements poised to take advantage of the changes is Voices of Tasmania - an offshoot of the mainland network that has toppled high-profile Liberals from federal seats, including Sophie Mirabella in Indi in 2013, and former Prime Minister Tony Abbott in the Sydney seat of Warringah in 2019.

Voices also played a role in last year's federal election, inspiring the so-called 'teal' independents that knocked off six sitting Liberal MPs, including former Treasurer Josh Frydenberg.

Now, the Voices network is taking aim at Tasmania, according to the organisation's state convenor, Hobart-based workplace health and safety consultant Michael Roberts.

He said the Premier's decision to re-expand parliament was one of the incentives for the group to go public.

"[The expansion] has pushed us to become public a bit earlier than we would have expected," Mr Roberts said.

In a move that he hopes will serve as a campaign launch, he has organised a series of events around the state featuring Denis Ginnivan, the co-founder of the successful Voices of Indi group that defeated Sophie Mirabella in 2013.

Mr Ginnivan, whose book The Indi Way describes how his community went on to elect independents against the odds, will speak at an event in Evandale on Sunday, followed by Hobart events on July 1, Burnie and Devonport on July 2, and Kingston on July 3.

Mr Roberts said Voices of Tasmania has plans to support two candidates in each of the five lower house seats at the next state election.

He said he will soon put out a recruitment call for candidates and expects to make an announcement about a high-profile candidate recruit for a southern seat in the near future.

"We've got increasing numbers of people wanting to volunteer and join as members, because there's a thirst for just something sensible and grounded in community interests," Mr Roberts said.

Cost of living and health concerns were the issues at the front of mind of most voters, he said.

"People want something better than they have been offered by the major parties, like representing community interests, local interests, rather than the party line or ideology or sectional interests," Mr Roberts said.

But transparency and accountability of government was also important, he said.

"The Liberal government has made this brave reform to add 10 seats back into parliament, and yet at the same time, there's this incredible instability that they've generated themselves by their lack of transparency and the stadium especially," Mr Roberts said.

Voices candidates on the mainland have so far focused on Liberal-held seats, but Mr Roberts denied that he was aimed solely against the Tasmanian Liberal Party.

Instead, he believed Voices candidates would gain support because of voter dissatisfaction with both major parties.

Dr Herr said the expansion of parliament will be a drawcard for many new parties and independent candidates.

He said candidates that have enough primary votes to survive the initial preference rounds will be able to "get over the line" on those preferences.

Voices would cannibalise votes from the two major parties, as well as others like the Greens, Dr Herr said.

"I don't think they'll compete head-to-head with the Greens, but they will probably have a solid view on climate change, but they may have different constituencies," he said.

"I think they will cannibalise votes from all three potentially, and the critical thing is that both the Liberals and Labor are in some disarray, there's dissatisfaction with both parties, with people identifying with those parties feeling a bit let down," Dr Herr said.

Voices campaigns on the mainland have had more mixed success contesting state elections in recent years.

In the 2020 Queensland state election, two Voices independents contested seats, with Sandy Bolton winning Noosa.

But in last November's Victorian state election, none of the Voices candidates standing won a seat.

But Tasmania's Hare-Clark electoral system is very different to Victoria's system and thought to be much friendlier to smaller parties and independents.

Either way, with ten new seats, the next state election will be very interesting to watch.

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