Four out of five young orange-bellied parrots do not survive winter migration, a study from the Australian National University has found.
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The study found the survival rate of young parents had plummetted from 51 per cent to 20 per cent between 1995 and 2017.
This has meant the population has continued to decline as fewer birds reach adulthood.
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The study found the survival rate of adults during migration was relatively unchanged over the span of the breeding program at Melaleuca.
The study used data collected by the Tasmania Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment over 22 years.
The study's lead author, Dejan Stojanovic, said the results were worrying.
"Our study shows that correcting decades of population decline of orange-bellied parrots is extremely difficult, and despite our best efforts, may not be successful," Dr Stojanovic said.
Orange-bellied Parrot Tasmanian Program lead wildlife biologist Shannon Troy contributed to the study.
She said although more orange-bellied parrots were born into the wild as a result of the breeding program, its benefits were reduced by unidentified and unaddressed threats during migration.
The difficult flight over the Bass Strait is suspected to have taken a severe toll on inexperienced juveniles on their first migration.
Those that survive then have to struggle to find a suitable habitat in Victoria over winter.
The state government invested more money to breed parrots in captivity through the construction of a new breeding centre near Hobart.
Dr Troy said the study showed new, targeted conservation efforts were needed to identify and address threats on migration.
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Political reporter for Australian Community Media, based in Hobart.
Political reporter for Australian Community Media, based in Hobart.
