Friday's announcement that Prime Minister Scott Morrison will definitely be attending next month's COP26 climate summit in Glasgow is the clearest evidence yet the Liberals believe they are on the cusp of striking a deal with the Nationals over a net-zero-by-2050 emissions target. It would be inconceivable, after all the speculation about Australia's likely position and the PM's reluctance to commit to Glasgow, for him to turn up empty handed. While some world leaders have been prepared to cut Mr Morrison some slack while he gets the recalcitrant - and obsessively self-interested - minor party on board, that was never going to last for ever.
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If the Prime Minister were to go Glasgow with nothing more in his backpack than a "preference" for net zero by 2050 and our already inadequate 2030 targets he would get a mauling from the global media and from the leaders of many other nations.
On Thursday, prominent Australian businessman and green hydrogen advocate Andrew Forrest used his National Press Club address to urge the Liberals to go it alone on net zero - thereby risking a Coalition split - if the Nationals won't sign up. He also took aim at renewable energy sceptic Bridget McKenzie and said he had recently spoken to Barnaby Joyce about the issue.
His comments came on the same day Reserve Bank deputy governor Guy Debelle warned Australia risked a "capital strike" by foreign investors if it did not do more.
Mr Debelle's analysis echoed remarks made by the Treasurer Josh Frydenberg in a speech on September 24. While the Prime Minister's shift towards net zero by 2050 is as welcome as it is overdue it should not be allowed to overshadow the fact that the debate has moved on in recent months, with 2030 emerging as a possible tipping point.
Australia's current targets, set as part of the Paris Agreement during the Abbott era, are manifestly inadequate and are in need of urgent revision - particularly given many analysts say we are already on track to exceed them despite a lack of federal government leadership. And, with Australians set to go to the polls within the next few months, Labor also has to come clean on what it thinks a desirable 2030 target should be as well.
