Premier Peter Gutwein looks likely to alter the make-up of his cabinet when counting for the House of Assembly election is finalised with government minister Roger Jaensch unlikely to be returned.
Mr Jaensch has a particularly heavy ministerial workload, holding the portfolios for housing, human services, planning, Aboriginal affairs, and environment and parks.
Mr Jaensch was on Sunday trailing fellow Braddon Liberal candidates Jeremy Rockliff, Felix Ellis and Adam Brooks in the count.
He was behind third-placed Mr Ellis by 1269 votes, according to figures Sunday night.
The Liberals will only win three seats in the electorate.
Political analyst Richard Herr said Mr Jaensch was a big component of cabinet, but he was not the glue that held it together.
He said if Mr Gutwein had not gone to the election early, he faced the prospect of losing more ministers.
"They haven't really lost a lot of talent," Professor Herr said.
"It won't be as challenging as if there had been a significant turnover of personnel."
He said the Premier had a number of options for Mr Jaensch's portfolios.
Professor Herr said it would be interesting to see if Madeleine Ogilvie was elevated to a ministry if she was re-elected as part of the government.
"And (Adam) Brooks is still not without experience," he said.
"If Brooks replaced Jaensch, there certainly wouldn't be the circumstance of a newcomer."
But that was so long as controversies surrounding Mr Brooks did not cause too much embarrassment to the party, Professor Herr said.
He said a return of Jacquie Petrusma to cabinet was more likely.
"She did lead the poll for the Liberals in Franklin and she won a quota in her own right so she would have a strong claim for consideration," Professor Herr said.
He said upper house members should be considered more often for ministerial roles.
At the moment, Jane Howlett is the only Liberal member in the Legislative Council that holds ministerial portfolios for racing and sport.
Professor Herr said the vacancy of Mr Jaensch provided another argument as to why the House of Assembly should be restored to 35 members.
"In the old days, we were asking 'what of the range of talent available should be there?'," he said. "Now we're asking 'who is available?'."
Government minister Michael Ferguson said any of the newly elected Liberal candidates had the potential to serve in cabinet.
"The Premier will be spoilt with riches of talent from which to choose his new talent, from which to choose his new cabinet, and that is a good thing for Tasmania," he said.
Political reporter for Australian Community Media, based in Hobart.
Political reporter for Australian Community Media, based in Hobart.
