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WILL Hodgman's Liberals will encounter troubled, stormy waters in the quest to do better than fluke that special second term.
Second terms for a new government are special because the first win, after a lengthy rule by the tired old outgoing government, is always an anti-climax.
The first win is a protest vote against the incumbents. The second win for a new regime is always super special because it means voters are happy with their performance.
So far the Libs have achieved stability and kept various election promises, but in the modern era of fickle, impatient voters the safest majorities are never safe enough.
The problem with this government is that its reputation depends on the performance of a few ministers and a peaceful co-existence with Canberra.
The relationship with the Abbott government is stable but this can easily change with a change of government.
The backbench made news on Monday with statements concerning euthanasia, which was surprising, not because of what they said, but that they said anything at all.
The backbench are tethered on a tight leash. Given the stability and apparent unity of the government, the backbench should be out there exploiting a popular reputation while it lasts.
Veteran MPs on all sides usually regard new recruits with disdain under the Hare Clarke system, because the enemy is not the other side but colleagues in your own electorate. The government can't expect to repeat the success of last year's election but it ought to try, for the sake of its backbench.
Part of the re-election strategy appears to involve keeping politics off the front page, but at this stage of the term this is undergraduate stuff.
Later next year a hapless Tony Abbott is facing an election defeat. His party is damned if they do or don't stick with him.
If they dumped him they would never recover from the removal of a first term PM, just like Labor with the Rudd-Gillard circus.
Assuming the unelectable Bill Shorten became prime minister next year the Hodgman government would face a hostile federal government at the 2018 state election. The Labor Party is smarter at using the reigns of federal power to burn conservative state governments. Tony Abbott hasn't done much for the state Libs, except dangle the carrot of a windfall if they sold off our energy assets.
If the Libs persists with a sub-radar strategy they should remember that they win elections across the North.
They know this. The budget special of a $60 million infrastructure package for the regions was ample evidence. So was the extensive Midland Highway upgrade, which is ongoing.
They will have to double the investment, now, so that ribbons are being cut in 2018. They risk losing seats in Braddon and Lyons. The Braddon result in 2014 is unsustainable, while Franklin is south enough in alternate lifestyle territory to suggest a seat is vulnerable.
The Libs are vulnerable in Bass unless they use the power of government to promote Sarah Courtney. They will always be at risk in Denison.
In 1998 Tony Rundle led a minority government while he dared to dream with a Hydro sale and fewer councils. John Howard's GST nightmare, which cost him a swag of seats from the 1996 landslide, simply swamped anything Tony Rundle attempted in 1998.
For different reasons and circumstances Tony Abbott may become Will Hodgman's nemesis. All the more reason for the Libs to rig the ship for a rough passage towards a second term.
If they think it's just Bryan Green so why worry, they don't understand the Labor Party. They should talk to their Victorian and Queensland colleagues.