THE state's Treasury department has admitted the chances of the $2 billion pulp mill ever being built at Bell Bay are ``highly uncertain'' in a report that paints a depressing picture of Tasmania's economic decline over two decades.
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The Structural Change in the Tasmanian Economy report, prepared by the Treasury Department, has taken a long-term view of the state's economic woes.
It describes the prospects for a pulp mill going ahead or the reopening of the Triabunna woodchip, owned by environmentalists Jan Cameron and Graeme Wood, as ``highly uncertain''.
However, a spokesman for Premier Lara Giddings said the ``information paper'' did not reflect the government's position.
``We remain hopeful that it will be built to provide jobs and opportunities for Tasmanians,'' the spokesman said.
``However, the future of the project rests in the hands of Gunns Ltd's receivers.''
The report, published online this month, blamed the widening gap between Tasmania's economic performance and the national economy was driven by forces mainly beyond the government's control.
While the transition phase was disruptive for workers who lose their jobs, the report predicts that it will eventually lead to stronger economic growth.
The report noted that the decline in manufacturing had been much more severe in Tasmania compared with rest of the country.
In the early 1990s, about 28,700 people were employed in manufacturing. That's almost halved to 16,000 in 2011-12.
``The propositional decline in manufacturing jobs has been over three times greater in Tasmania than in Australia as a whole,'' the report stated.
Manufacturing businesses with the greatest prospects of long-term viability are those that benefit from a supply or cost advantage from being located in Tasmania such as aquaculture where water temperature is a critical factor or businesses such as the three metal processors that are dependent on Hydro Tasmania for cheaper electricity.
Opposition treasury spokesman Peter Gutwein said the report was a ``catalogue of reasons why this government should be thrown out''.