Chaos always hurts a government, especially when it's the government causing much of the chaos.
Oppositions can cause mischief in Parliament, knowing that a shambolic sitting always ends up at the government's door.
But it's chaos in the broader community, against a backdrop of a seemingly endless pandemic that can really hurt a government, no matter how much it spends to mitigate the pain.
The result can lead to a government losing the election rather than the opposition winning it. If I was Bridget Archer I would be worried.
Opinion polls rarely favour governments as elections draw nearer.
People start to size up both sides, and usually do this through the prism of presidential politics, because it's far easier to judge a party by its leader rather than sifting through policies, promises, lies and embellishments.
I've always relied on the question: who is the preferred prime minister or premier? In presidential politics the question is critical to understanding what the population is thinking.
The PM or Premier has the advantage of the purse strings, so that they can actually do things rather than just promise.
In 2007 there was a point where Kevin Rudd overtook John Howard as the preferred PM. From my perspective, Howard's chances of another term were shot to pieces. Australians wanted someone else to lead them.
The current government was in a shambles after the revolving door leadership ballots, so that in early 2019 the media expected a Labor government.
I always thought Bill Shorten was unelectable. His spooky swag of scary tax policies led to people sticking with the shambles they knew.
Scott Morrison's bizarre Honolulu holiday in the summer of 2019 while Australia burned sowed the seeds of some doubt about this firm, forthright and straight talking politician.
But then he shone at the outset of the pandemic, creating national cabinet and talking to stakeholders including the ACTU.
The complacency of low virus numbers and a new raft of vaccines blew up in his face as numbers took off and vaccine arrivals were painfully slow.
Morrison put a an army general, Lt General John Frewen in charge of the "stroll-out" and the catch up began.
Now we're more than 90 per cent vaccinated and they've switched from PCR tests to the RATs, or Rapid Antigen Tests. But, once again supplies are scarce and Australians are falling down like flies to the Omicron variant and people are dying again.
The Labor Party is not saying a lot and why should they when the government is complacent again with supplies while rules keep changing depending on which state you're in.
Throw in the Novak Djokovic spectacle and you have a melting pot of chaos.
Djokovic is a rich, entitled fool who plays mind games, like his arrogant refusal to say whether he's vaccinated or not. I would deport him.
Whether he's to blame or not, this international circus reflects badly on the government. Chaos again.
They're damned if they do or don't. If they deport Djokovic there's more chaos. If they let him play they will look weak and unable to control our borders.
This is not the boat people and MV Tampa drama of 2001.
It's a hullabaloo over one famous tennis player who happens to be the favourite to win the Australian Open.
So, bringing it all back home, what does Bass Labor candidate Ross Hart do?
I would say nothing, because the more the focus remains on this government, the greater chance he has of winning back the very marginal seat of Bass.
If there is even a wisp of a uniform swing against the government the incumbent Liberal Bridget Archer will be an early casualty on election night.
Archer has carved out a niche for herself as an independent minded government backbencher, which is something I have suggested she do, along with Braddon colleague Gavin Pearce.
The news that the PM and his deputy Josh Frydenberg roasted Archer in the PM's office, for backing a vote on an anti-corruption commission, probably secured a lot of votes for her.
But people know Ross Hart as a prominent lawyer and his time as the previous Bass Member. He's already well known. He just has to keep door-knocking to remind people there is a choice.
The Bass and Braddon Liberal campaigns helped significantly to secure victory for the government in 2019, and the two incumbents ought to be twisting the arm of the government's leadership group in terms of something stunning for the northern electorates.
And, I mean really stunning, like the relocation of major departments or agencies to Northern Tasmania, or, a big investment in Tasmania's TT-Line ferry acquisition.
It's going to have to be big to overcome the chaos and the battering Morrison's reputation has suffered from issues like the pandemic and the shemozzle of the cancelled French submarine contract.
- Barry Prismall is a former The Examiner deputy editor and Liberal adviser