Tasmania's borrowings will reach almost $5 billion by 2025 as the Liberal government seeks cash to fund its commitments, the 2021-22 state budget reveals.
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The state's chief fiscal plan released on Thursday includes a $5.7 billion infrastructure spend that Premier Peter Gutwein says will support an additional 28,000 jobs.
But to do this the state will need to be plunged further into net debt, which will reach $3.47 by 2025. This means net debt will double over three years from $1.7 billion in 2022.
As with infrastructure, significant spending will occur in the education and health portfolios.
The government boasts of its plan to spend $10.7 billion in health and $8 billion in education over the next four years respectively.
The budget papers show the state will move from a $689.8 million net operating deficit in 2021-22 to a net operating surplus of $39.4 million in 2023-24 and an increased surplus of $126.8 million in 2024-25.
The preliminary outcome for borrowings in 2020-21 was $1.81 billion, down $1.2 billion from the budgeted figure of $3 billion.
But for 2021-22 borrowings are estimated to increase to $2.87 billion reach $4.93 billion by 2025.
The budget notes government policy decisions for departments, including election commitments, will cost the state $1.84 billion over the forward estimates.
The highest annual figure to fund these commitments is in the budget's first year at $683.7 million.
Treasury has noted the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic posed a key risk to the Tasmanian economy.
It said the reopening of borders risked local expenditure travelling overseas, and said the pandemic had restricted labour movement and movement of goods across Australia and internationally.
Treasury said ongoing global trade tensions also presented an economic risk, particularly with Australia's deteriorating relationship with China.
It said stronger than expected recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic has contributed to government revenue increases above what was expected.
Revenue is expected to increase to $7.25 billion in 2021-22, an increase of $829.4 million.
It is forecast to grow by $793.8 million over the four years, mainly due to strong growth in GST revenue and state taxes.
Stamp duties from property sales is anticipated to jump up by $23.6 million in 2022-23 to $157 million and then to $182.8 million the following year.
Payroll tax is expected to lift from $29 million to $34.6 million and then again to $37.1 million by 2023-24.
GST revenue is expected to drop down to $293 million in 2022-23, before it lifts back up to $320.8 million the year after.
Employee expenses will increase by $514.3 million over the four-year term of the budget to reach $3.55 billion by 2025.