That is going by a forecast from Deloitte Access Economics, which expects the value of Tasmanian retail turnover to drop by a full 1 per cent in 2021-22.

That is the equal worst expectation for any jurisdiction, along with New South Wales.

IN OTHER NEWS:

Deloitte forecast Tasmanian turnover growth for the current financial year would come in at a relatively strong 1.3 per cent, well ahead of a forecast 0.1 per cent decrease nationally.

The weak Tasmanian outlook follows Australian Bureau of Statistics figures based on payrolls showing total employment in Tasmania fell by a nation's worst 9.5 per cent between March 14 and May 30 as the economic crisis developed.

Deloitte said retailers were facing the fight of their lives in 2020.

It expected retail nationally to pick up in coming months, with an improving economy supported by income support measures such as the federal government's JobKeeper wages subsidy, banks deferring mortgage payments and early access to superannuation.

However, it expected the period after that to be a "slog" for retail.

"September is already flashing red for many retailers as the month for the intended end to JobKeeper and, therefore, the significant support many businesses, including retail, of course, have been receiving," it said.

"That may see the last phase for retail in 2020 as a fairly sombre one, leaving many retailers to dream of the support they received when COVID was at its peak."

Deloitte Access Economics partner and the principal author of its Retail Forecasts report, David Rumbens, said the short-term risks from rising unemployment and reduced willingness to spend would linger, especially as fiscal stimulus programs were unwound in September.

"More worrying is the longer-term risk from weak population growth," Mr Rumbens said.

"Migration has been an important support for retail spending over the past decade, but with borders closed there is potential for this tailwind for growth to turn into a headwind."

Deloitte said reduced access to bricks and mortar stores during the pandemic sped up an existing shift towards online retail.

It said online retail turnover as a percentage of all retail turnover trended up from 5.7 per cent in March 2019 to 6.6 per cent in February this year, before surging to 10 per cent by April.

It expected the trend to slow, but to continue.

"People like browsing and shopping and, once restrictions ease and health concerns are alleviated, consumers are expected to mostly return to bricks and mortar stores," the quarterly report said.

"However, COVID-19 will have convinced parts of the population that online purchases and delivery services are a viable option and, at times, more efficient, accelerating the longer-term trend already seen towards online shopping."