The first major cornerstone of Tasmania's path into the AFL appears to have collapsed with strong indications that the state will not join the VFL as planned in 2025.
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VFL inclusion was intended to fill the void following the end of the State League and its delay would leave Tasmania without a significant football competition next season.
Neither AFL Tasmania nor the Tasmanian Football Club would confirm the delay but both hinted at timeline issues prompting State League pace-setters North Launceston to label the transition a "train smash" likely to lead to a mass exodus of players, coaches and umpires.
At the announcement for the state's AFL team last May, league chief executive Gillon McLachlan said Tasmania would join the VFL in 2025.
However, The Examiner has heard from multiple sources that this is unlikely to happen.
Asked whether a Tasmanian VFL team would be ready by 2025, TFC chairman Grant O'Brien said: "So all of these are good questions, but they can't be answered at the moment, not by us anyway in all truth, because we are only one of the stakeholders in all of this."
Asked the same question, Head of AFL Tasmania Damian Gill said: "The timing of entry into some competitions, such as VFL/W, is still being worked through."
North Launceston president Thane Brady said alarm bells were sounding when the timeline was announced a year ago.
"Many football people outside the AFL bubble were concerned the plan was not achievable in such a short period of lead-in time," he said.
"Consistent reports now indicate the Tasmanian VFL team will not be commencing in 2025. However, the TSL will not be extended, causing a gap year or two for players, coaches and umpires on a game development journey.
"AFL Tas have known about no VFL for months yet have not been forthcoming with the stakeholders they are charged with supporting and protecting."
Brady believed either AFL Tasmania should extend the State League "until at least 2028" or "the state government should immediately take back management control of our game from AFL Tas as this failure to ensure foundation strength at all levels of competition is a seriously damaging setback in our pursuit of sustainability for our AFL team".
Meanwhile the region's other State League team, Launceston, called a special meeting last week to discuss its best future options following the demise of the competition.
Brady feared the lack of a senior competition would force Northern Tasmania's best prospects to either "waste a year or two" in community footy, give up their aspirations, move to a stronger competition in Hobart or relocate interstate.
Gill said this was already happening.
"The exodus of players seeking opportunities elsewhere has unfortunately existed for some time and has been a major point of frustration for us - thankfully, we are now on a path to address it for good," he said.
"A best practice pathway is on the way, with academies for 12-15-year-old girls and boys in each region, state under-16s, and our Coates Talent League teams at under-18 level. This will then include VFLW and VFL teams and ultimately be completed with AFLW and AFL teams. All supported by community football across three strong regions."
He said AFL Tasmania was working closely with the Devils on the sequencing of their various teams "as they look to build strong programs at every level".
"We will ensure that every step along the way we are considering any impacts on local clubs as well as finding ways to provide opportunities for senior talent.
"We have work still to do but we will soon have the best pathway in the country on our doorstep, with the investment of $93 million into game development in Tasmania through to the first decade in the life of our new Tasmanian club."
Quoting the 2023 AFL Tasmania press release outlining entry into the VFL, Brady said: "Mr Gill broadcast loud and decisive all over Tasmania that his organisation that are the custodians of our game had thought long and hard about these changes that would deliver three even regional competitions whilst maintaining opportunities for locals over the age of 18 to challenge themselves representing Tasmania in the VFL.
"Three things you should never break: promises, trust and someone's heart. Mr Gill collects on the trifecta.
"Blindly following the script of his masters sitting up in the AFL white house, Mr Gill has missed a perfect opportunity to prevent the train smash that he set in motion.
"Mr Gill could seize the moment to extend TSL until at least 2028 - that would maintain and protect the talent development pathway for Devils and graduates not drafted."