Greater Northern Raiders believe they have snuck into the Cricket Tasmania Premier League men's first grade semi-finals despite going down to bottom-placed New Town in their final roster match.
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"If we've got our maths right, we think we are fourth," Raiders coach Alistair Taylor said.
"We're 90 per cent sure when all the points are added we should go above Kingborough."
A second innings dig of 258 off 33.2 overs at Invermay Park could prove pivotal in seeing the team progress to a semi-final away to top-placed North Hobart beginning next Saturday.
A thrilling battle for first-innings points saw New Town's final pair of John Montgomery and Tyler Willmott produce a 44-run partnership to edge past Raiders' total of 254.
One wicket down heading into the second day of the match, New Town looked good on the back of a strong second-wicket combination of 104 between Joe Randall (57) and William Sartori (63).
Lachlan Clark (3-88), Aidan O'Connor (3-50) and Ben Spinks (2-14) hauled the hosts back into the contest with a middle-order collapse of 4-13 before the tail wagged.
Still needing 85 runs with only four wickets in hand, Caelan Maladay's run-a-ball 28 set the tone, allowing Willmott to hit the boundary to put his side in front on his way to 46 not out, ably supported by Montgomery's 21.
"The first hour of the day we did not bowl well and they probably got about 60 runs but then the last hour before lunch and first hour after we were fantastic," Taylor added.
"But we dropped three or four catches and even on that last wicket when they still needed 10."
Batting a second time, Raiders recovered from 4-39 with some strong contributions through the middle of their innings.
Sisitha Jayasinghe made 37 and Dravid Rao 27 before O'Connor and Dan Murfet put on 128, claiming four sixes each in an entertaining partnership before both falling to Trent Millhouse who took 3-9 off just two overs.
O'Connor added nine fours on his way to a quickfire 73 off just 42 deliveries with Murfet departing one run later having also not hung about with his 64 off 46.
Maladay led the bowling figures with 4-101 off 12.2 overs while Willmott took 2-27.
"The game result was done but we did some maths and checked on the other scores and felt we had enough time in the day to get 250 runs and try and scrape through on bonus points," Taylor said.
"This gave a license for the boys to go out and bat with freedom and Aidan was fantastic - that's his highest score for us - while Dan did not have many dot balls and played some beautiful shots."
The loss was the only blemish on Raiders' two-day form in 2024.
Since defeating South Hobart Sandy Bay in January, the Northern composite team have claimed first-innings wins over Kingborough at UTAS Stadium plus Lindisfarne and Clarence away.