Brian Roe | Are Olympics in COVID's too hard box?

It was certainly not yet the case that the fate of sporting events - big and small - might be under a cloud.

We are now considerably better informed and as a result constantly asking the question what may or may not be on - and if it is, then in what format?

Perhaps the most high profile - and therefore most often pondered - is the destiny of the 2020 come 2021 Olympic and Paralympic Games.

Its situation is different to almost every other sporting event.

First and foremost the Games are about tradition and prestige - neither a means for professional sportspeople to make a living nor for grassroots participants to enjoy their engagement and stay fit and healthy.

In fact some elite sportspeople, like golfers and tennis players, take a fortnight out of their income-earning year.

There's way more at stake if seasons or tournaments in professional sport cannot proceed, but there are plenty of losers if the Games don't go ahead.

The International Olympic Committee makes big money for operations and programs from media rights and sponsorship for staging each Games. It's pretty much the same for its Paralympic equivalent.

And the majority of the constituent international sporting federations are heavily dependent on IOC dividends.

While there is no prizemoney per se at the Olympics, many athletes rely on bonuses from sponsors to bolster their income.

The media companies who buy the rights to broadcast the Olympics fork out big dollars to make even bigger dollars in return. They have already spent heavily in preparation and, while they might get their rights fees back from the IOC, there will be no return on other investment and no profit.

And then there are the Japanese organisers, their national, prefecture and city governments and countless other enterprises who have invested heavily to make their home Games a success.

If surveys are to believed it seems that right now a big percentage of their own people don't want or expect the Games to go ahead in 2021 which in effect surely now means - at all.

This is from a population that takes huge pride in staging events and proving what its nation is capable of.

Japan is currently in lockdown and Tokyo under a state of emergency. It's the entire population and the operation of its economy that's at risk - not simply a sporting event.

There will be many who might contemplate that because the northern hemisphere is in the depths of winter and with a vaccine on the way that this will be as bad as it gets.

But it's not solely about the circumstances of the host country. Far from it.

It's equally about every other country, especially each larger sporting nation that has plans to send a delegation to the Games.

It must be noted that Australia is in a significantly better position than most to prepare and select its team.

Yet over just the past two weeks sudden lockdowns and other restrictions have curtailed events or the capacity of participants to travel to them from interstate.

Cricket has found a way to pivot through bubbles and crowdless matches in order to keep at least its rights holders happy.

For other sports that's just not possible - especially to maintain some semblance of fairness in providing opportunities for Australians to be nominated to the Olympic team.

It's the same conundrum facing the IOC and the Tokyo organisers. If there is any chance of the Games proceeding then it surely cannot be in the style to which everyone has become accustomed.

There can be no gala opening and closing ceremonies, no traditional coming together of the youth of the world for three weeks in the Olympic Village and no capacity crowds.

Much of what the IOC has long maintained was non-negotiable may need to be surrender-able for the Games to go on.

Some decisions might be easy - dropping tennis and golf for example. Same with the problem children of boxing and weightlifting. Maybe even hiving off the early rounds of teams sports to nearby countries and hosting just the medal matches in Japan.

But many are going to be jolly hard. Perhaps just too hard.