For the sixth consecutive federal election, the people of Bass have deposed their incumbent MP - and the 2019 result could be the most unexpected of them all.
Based on polling both local and federal, few predicted a Liberal victory in Bass - and even fewer would have predicted the extent of the victory - which gave the party its first female lower house MP in the seat, Bridget Archer.
She appears all but certain to win the seat with the swing at 6.7 per cent late on Saturday evening and a 1.25 per cent lead, resulting in Labor's Ross Hart conceding at 9pm.
Tasmania was the state with the strongest swing to the Liberal Party, even eclipsing their massive gains in Queensland.
A birthday to remember for Bridget Archer
It wasn't long before the mood began to grow increasingly jubilant at Ms Archer's election night function at Peppers Silo Hotel in Launceston, as the TV news coverage relayed a stream of good news to the room.
By 8pm, high-fives were being exchanged, Liberal supporters were whooping and champagne bottles were being popped.
At about 9.30pm, Liberal Party state president Geoff Page took to the podium to gee up those gathered in the function room, in anticipation of Ms Archer's arrival.
"Can I say, the Liberal Party, we are back in business here in Tasmania. We'll no longer go to Canberra with just senators representing us," Mr Page said, to wild applause.
Tasmanian Liberal Senator Jonathon Duniam then introduced Ms Archer.
"What we've learnt out of tonight is what happens to a political party that turns its back on regional Tasmanians," he said. "What we're seeing tonight is Tasmania's response to that."
"There's something to be said about being written off early.
"I'm not a gambling man but ... I'm reliably informed by a gambling man that only a couple of hours ago Sportsbet had us at $7.50 to win government. Right now we're at $1.10."
Senator Duniam pointed to Labor's promise of $50 million for an expansion of David Walsh's MONA in Hobart's northern suburbs, as well as the party's pledge of $25 million to get a Tasmanian AFL team off the ground, as key reasons Bass and Braddon looked to have fallen to the Liberals.
When Ms Archer finally made her entrance, she was visibly emotional.
"This is a turnaround election for a turnaround state," she told the crowd.
"Hopefully, in a day or two, we can bring it home."
WATCH BELOW: Bridget Archer addresses Liberal Party supporters in Launceston
Later, Ms Archer put the 6.7 per cent swing to the Liberals in Bass down to her hard work since being preselected.
"I've just worked every single day since I've been preselected, talking to the people of Bass, knocking on doors and trying to run a really grassroots campaign about what's important around keeping the momentum going here in Northern Tasmania over the last five years," she said.
"That's really important to me. It's what motivates me.
"And obviously it's what's resonating with the people I've spoken to."
She said she hadn't had a chance to celebrate her birthday yet.
"There's been no cake," she laughed.
The George Town mayor refused to claim victory just yet.
"It's still very close, the results are still coming in," Ms Archer said. "But if I am successfully elected, I believe I'll be the first female Liberal elected [in Bass] to the House of Representatives."
Ms Archer said she hadn't heard from Mr Hart since he gave his concession speech.
"Ross is a very decent person and I think I've said throughout the course of this campaign that one of the things I've been most proud about is that this has been an incredibly civilised campaign here in Bass," she said.
Ms Archer thanked her family for their support during the campaign, describing her husband and children as "amazing".
She highlighted the "importance" of being "a strong role model for my children but also, I think, for other women as well".
"It's certainly something that means very much to me, that women can achieve whatever they want to achieve whatever they want to achieve if we as a society support them to do that," Ms Archer said.
Election day started with Prime Minister Scott Morrison joining Ms Archer at Norwood Primary School where they chatted with voters.
His regular appearances in Bass towards the end of the campaign were a reflection of what the party must have been hearing - the seat was well and truly in play.
Hart at a loss to explain unexpected defeat in Bass
Ross Hart became the sixth sitting member for Bass since 2004 to lose the seat and he appeared at a loss to explain why, given Labor promises in the seat outweighed their opponents across the board.
He thanked volunteers who door knocked 14,000 homes and contacted 17,000 residents by phone since September, and claimed there was no indication that the Labor Party was struggling.
In his concession speech, Mr Hart said he was joining an increasing line of "good" and "hard-working" Bass MHRs to be shown the door, and he appeared to blame dirty politics for some of the losses.
WATCH BELOW: Ross Hart speaks with The Examiner after conceding defeat in Bass
"Unfortunately we have, in particular in this electorate, a political party that is prepared, for example, to letterbox people in George Town telling them, despite what they know, that Labor was prepared to cancel regional grants, commitments that were made in writing to the electorate," he said.
"We've had scare campaign on scare campaign again, and who amongst you can tell me what the Liberals' positive story for Northern Tasmania was? There was no positive story."
Mr Hart claimed an unlikely victory in 2016 backed by a strong campaign by GetUp! to remove Andrew Nikolic. His 10.1 per cent swing in that election may have masked the true state of Bass and paved the way for his loss on Saturday.
Mr Hart said he had fears for Bass and Northern Tasmania as the Coalition appeared certain to form government, either in minority or majority.
"I have always tried ... to represent the people without a voice: the people that are marginalised, the homeless people," he said.
"The people that have come to my office, day after day, advising that they are about to be made homeless.
"This government does not care about those people, and it looks as if we may well be stuck with another Liberal National government in minority."
Likely Lyons win a small comfort for Labor in disastrous election
Lyons Labor incumbent Brian Mitchell claimed the seat on a slim margin.
His survival came down to the flow of preferences and a likely fight with disendorsed Liberal candidate Jessica Whelan.
With all but three of the 80 booths counted across the sprawling electorate, Mr Mitchell held 37.1 per cent of the vote - or 21,205 primary votes in total.
His percentage, however, saw a 4.3 per cent drop in votes in his favour.
Mr Mitchell said
"Barring something weird going on with pre-poll and postal votes, it appears I have been re-elected as the federal Member for Lyons," he said.
"Words cannot express how humbled I am by the result, and I would like to thank each and every Lyons voter who put their faith in me.
"I will work every day of the next 3 years to repay that faith.
"Of course, I am disappointed with the national result, and what appears to be a devastating result in Braddon and Bass in Tasmania. It is important that Labor deeply reflects on the election result and the lessons it has for us as a political party that seeks to bring this country together."
Ms Whelan polled well winning 23 per cent of the vote (13,193 votes) despite her campaign being scuttled by the revelation mid-campaign of a series of anti-Islamic and anti-feminist Facebook posts made by her before she was a candidate.
These posts eventually saw her dumped by the party and the Liberals telling voters to back Nationals candidate Deanna Hutchinson instead.
Ms Hutchinson won 9555 primaries or 16.7 per cent of the vote.
Greens candidate Gary Whisson won 9.24 of the primary votes, One Nation candidate Tennille Murtagh 7.8 per cent, and United Australia Party candidate Michael Warne 6 per cent.