Extreme El Niño events are expected to increase for another 100 years due to a rise in global temperatures.
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Research by the CSIRO shows that if warming stopped at 1.5 degrees, extreme El Niño events could become more frequent as faster warming in the eastern equatorial Pacific continues.
Lead author Dr Guojian Wang said the growing risk of extreme El Niño events did not stabilise in a stabilised climate.
“The risk of extreme El Niño events is around five events per 100 years,” Dr Wang said.
“This doubles to approximately 10 events per 100 years by 2050, when our modelled emissions scenario reaches a peak of 1.5 degrees warming. After this ... the risk of extreme El Niño continues upwards to about 14 events per 100 years by 2150,” he said.
The research is based on five climate models looking beyond 2100 and conducted at Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research in Hobart.