On November 4 the residents of Pembroke, in the state’s south, will head to the polls after the resignation of former Attorney-General, Vanessa Goodwin, who is battling brain cancer. 

Seven candidates are on the ticket, but political analyst Kevin Bonham believes the race will be between the independent, Doug Chipman, and Labor’s Jo Siejka.

Mr Bonham said it would be difficult for the Liberal’s candidate, Clarence City alderman James Walker, to secure a victory.

“It’s tough for incumbent governments to retain seats in the usual by-election environment,” Mr Bonham said. 

“The Liberal candidate is relatively low profile if you look at his results on Clarence Council; it’s nowhere near as strong as Doug Chipman.”

As Opposition Leader Rebecca White talks up her party’s chances, Mr Bonham believes Saturday’s by-election could be a significant one for Labor.

“If Labor does win this one then that makes it very likely they’re going to win the state election as well – at least in minority,” he declared.

He said if the Liberal Party secured the seat, it would quash worries as a result of previous negative polling. 

With alderman Chipman as the Clarence City Council mayor, Mr Bonham believes, “on paper”, he is the most likely to be victorious.

“Where you have a candidate who’s a local mayor and who’s independent, at least tokenly, and who’s got a history of polling well – they’d tend to win,” Mr Bonham said. 

Mr Bonham acknowledged the results could make for “messy” analysis if alderman Chipman wins.

In her first campaign as Labor leader, Ms White said the election was a TasWater takeover referendum. 

“If people don't vote for James Walker, if they don't support the Liberal candidate, then that's a very clear message to the government that their TasWater takeover is not supported by the community,” she said. 

Health Minister Michael Ferguson spent Saturday door knocking with Alderman Walker.

“James has been running a very strong campaign including on the cost of living pressures that only the Liberal party is championing,” he said. 

Also contesting the Pembroke by-election is Carlo Di Falco, Bill Harvey, Richard James and Hans Willink.