As the political future of Tasmanian Greens Senator Nick McKim hangs in the balance, an academic says the party has some soul searching to do.
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Liberal Senators Richard Colbeck and David Bushby are in an election battle with Senator McKim to secure the state’s final senate seat.
University of Tasmania associate professor Kate Crowley said Senator McKim’s struggle was unexpected.
“His name as a state leader, which you’d think would have carried weight, hasn’t done so,” she said.
“We’ve seen a bit of taking for granted of those two Greens Senate places.
“There seemed to be no noticeable campaigning by the Tasmanian Greens Senators to retain their seats.”
Dr Crowley said Labor Senator Lisa Singh, who ran a campaign for votes below the line, would take votes from the Greens.
“She seems to be more of an Australian Democrat or a Green or even an Andrew Wilkie,” she said.
“There has been a swing from the Liberal Party that seems to have jumped straight over to the Labor Party and the independents, and the Green vote is lower than what you would expect.
She said in rejecting major parties, the rush was no longer to the Greens.
“In Tasmania in particular the Greens have got some soul searching to do.”
As the slow Senate count continues, psephologist Kevin Bonham said Senator Bushby, Senator Colbeck and Senator McKim were “all at significant risk of defeat”.
Dr Bonham said based on current data it appeared Labor would secure five seats, the Liberals would take four, the Greens would take two and one would go to the Jacqui Lambie Network.
But he said it was a tight race which could see the Liberals secure five, removing Senator McKim’s chance of re-election.
Senator McKim’s colleague Peter Whish-Wilson has the top ticket spot and is guaranteed re-election, but there is currently not enough Greens votes to pull him over the line as well.
Senator Colbeck is receiving high below the line votes, and will have to compete against Senator Bushby who is fourth on the Liberal ticket.
Dr Bonham said it was unlikely Pauline Hanson’s One Nation party would win a Senate seat, nor would other micro-parties such as the Nick Xenophon Team.
He said Senator Singh would probably be re-elected despite being sixth on the party’s ticket, due to below the line votes.