WEST Coast knows how to beat this powerful Hawthorn line-up.
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We know that.
We saw that when the Eagles pressured and shut down the two-time reigning champs on the opening night of this finals series.
There was no run, no space, no time.
The Hawks' ability to use the uncontested ball was taken away from them, and they were brought back to earth with a thud.
No time to chip the ball around.
No uncontested mark after uncontested mark when building play from defence.
It's the blueprint that has been written this year on how to defeat them, but West Coast did it so well, at times their work from the back-line looked very Hawthorn-like.
Adam Simpson's boys played this to perfection in Perth, the biggest question is can they do it in on the MCG on the biggest stage there is?
On a stage that this Hawthorn team knows so well, a stage they will grace for the fourth year in succession.
This is a week and the moments it delivers that have become like second nature for many of these players, where it is foreign territory for the boys from the West.
Only three players in Hawthorn's winning preliminary final team haven't won a premiership, only three in the Eagles have.
This experience, and the home-ground advantage, are two major factors working in Hawthorn's favour, and as long as they can rectify their work on the outside, it should see them home.
Analysing this from a statistical point of view, there is not much between them.
Both are high-scoring units, the Hawks averaging around the 110 mark and West Coast 104 points per game, and more of the ball (394 to 372).
The Hawks tackle more (65 to 61) and go inside 50 more (56 to 55), while both teams concede around 70 points each.
But the stats that matter here are these ones: Hawthorn averages 30 more uncontested possessions a game, 27 more effective touches and three more bounces.
On the inside it is the Eagles that have the contested touches by about seven, contested marks by one, while marks inside 50 are equal with 13 each.
Those numbers again prove how important the outside ball is.
It is the only area of significant advantage between the two teams.
The Hawks did win the uncontested ball in the qualifying final loss, but only by 20, and were about 57 down on their average.
In their win in Perth, they were still down on their average, this time by about 70, but were able to win that area in a game they had to come from behind in.
Again, stop the outside ball and you either stop or restrict the Hawks significantly.
That means shutting down the likes of Isaac Smith, Cyril Rioli, Bradley Hill and Grant Birchall.
It's those guys and the grunt of Luke Hodge, Liam Shiels and Jordan Lewis, and the guile of Sam Mitchell, against the Eagles runners of Luke Shuey, Andrew Gaff, Elliot Yeo, Chris Masten, Matt Rosa and Matt Priddis that will prove decisive.
The X factor that is Nic Naitanui in the ruck, with more than able support from Callum Sinclair, should give them the advantage in the ruck against Ben McEvoy and David Hale, but what happens next is harder to call.
The Eagles' front-half is frightening.
Josh Kennedy, Mark LeCras, Jamie Cripps and Josh Hill, with help from Naitanui, lead this charge.
James Frawley and Brian Lake will need to lift, with Taylor Duryea and Ben Stratton more than capable on the medium-small forwards.
Hawthorn, with Jarryd Roughead, Luke Breust, Paul Puopolo and Jack Gunston, is the latest challenge for the undermanned West Coast defence.
While the likes of Sharrod Wellingham and Brad Sheppard have been undersized, Jeremy McGovern and Will Schofield have stood tall when others who are described that way have succumbed to injury.
It's hard to pick a winner, but there's one thing that should drive these Hawks.
History.
More specifically, the chance to make it.
Alastair Clarkson and his Hawks have the chance to win three premierships in a row.
That history tells us that opportunity is not one that comes around that often.
It will be ferocious early as the Hawks look to right what they consider to be a wrong from the first week of these post-season engagements.
They won't let the opportunity for a third flag go without one hell of a fight, one I expect them to win.
ALEX FAIR'S FINAL WORD:
HAWTHORN BY 26.
NORM SMITH: Sam Mitchell.