“Nothing is over until it is over,” was the determined word from crewman Kimo Worthington this morning.

Over the past three hours they have steadily whittled down the Australian yacht’s lead from 40 miles to les than 20, and they believe that if they can get that gap down a little more by the time the leaders reach Tasman Island they will be in a position to capitalise on any misfortune that befalls the race leader.

“The guys have pushed really hard to get the gap down,” Worthington said. “It is going to be very tricky down there. We are going to cross our fingers and hope we will be a little lucky. We want to put on a good show in the Derwent River.”

The fluky conditions forecast for Tasman later today have decided the race before. It is the frontrunner’s dilemma, when the lead boat sails into a hole and watches her rival sail around her.  It happened to Wild Oats XI in 2011, whenInvestec Loyal sailed around her to win the race. Incredibly, Stan Honey, who is navigating Comanche this year was the navigator on Investec Loyal that year.

Indeed Wild Oats XI owes her lead to yesterday’s bizarre conditions in Bass Strait.  The lithe Australian squeezed through the gate of a high pressure ridge moving across the Strait and then scooted away from the heavier, beamyComanche as she wallowed in the breathless air.

“We didn’t like that at all,” says Worthington. “The head sea was awful. We were just banging away while Oats sailed away from us.”

But whatever happens today Worthington says the crew are delighted with how well their untested boat has performed, her Bass Strait misadventures notwithstanding.

“We knew we wouldn’t be good in five knots and a head sea, but look at the last few hours. We’re very pleased.”

EARLIER

Bob Oatley’s 10 year-old super maxi Wild Oats XI is racing towards an historic eighth line honours victory in theSydney Hobart this morning. 

With a just under 100 nautical miles to go to the finish line she held a 25 nautical mile lead over the brand new American super maxi, Jim Clark and Kristy Hinze Clark’s Comanche.

The two yachts were rushing down the Tasmanian coast in good breeze, though the further south they get the lighter the wind will be.

Already Wild Oats XI, the southernmost boat, slowed to 17 knots while Comanche was still sailing at speeds in the mid-twenties, and Oats’ skipper Mark Richards expects that the gap between the yachts will continue to close as they approach Tasman Island around midday.

It dis appear though that Comanche will not have enough time to rein in the Australian unless…  For there is one big “if” still in left this epic line honours struggle.

Later this morning the winds around Tasman Island and in Storm Bay are forecast to be very patchy. It is still possible that Wild Oats XI could sail into a windless patch of water, leaving Comanche to sail around her. It is the curse of the leading boat. In the box seat, there is no-one in front of them to show where the minefields lie. 

That, or last minute gear failure on Oats, is Comanche’s last roll of the dice.

Whatever happens, the big gap between the boats will compress this morning. The leaders will have to tack up the Derwent River in a very modest westerly to reach Hobart. A gripping two-boat duel is not impossible.

It has been a wonderful match race between two such disparate styles of boat since the fleet left the Cruising Yacht Club of Australia on Boxing Day.

A staggering 100 miles separates the two leaders from third placed Ragamuffin 100, which is only now beginning to escape from the mid-Bass Strait ridge that proved Comanche’s undoing yesterday.

Indeed the whole fleet has compressed as the boats have sailed into the very light winds overnight. You could almost throw a blanket over the fleet in the top half of the Strait.

The race for the overall win is wide open. At present, Tasmanian  Anthony Williams is leading aboard Martela, with Roger Hickman’s Wild Rose in second place and David Redfern’s Not a Diamond third – the positions have continually changed throughout the last 24 hours and will continue to do so in tandem with conditions.

All are in the 40 foot range. With such a compressed fleet, this 70th edition of the race could well belong to the smaller boats.

Two yachts, A Cunning Plan and Chancellor are still racing to Hobart, but failed to radio in before passing Green Cape and entering Bass Strait, in accordance with the rules of the race. Their fate will be decided by the Race Committee.

Perpetual Loyal, the last casualty yesterday morning, is approaching Sydney and will be in her Rose Bay berth later this morning.