Every time a new budget paper is opened in the COVID era, there's an audible intake of breath from all corners of the Tasmanian community.
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Whether it's from those who rely on essential services in health, where the constant threat of service cuts looms large in areas that are already beyond tipping point.
Or the public sector workers who make up 10 per cent of the state's workforce, who have become accustomed to "efficiency dividends", department restructures and stagnant wages.
And then there's the every day Tasmanians with an eye on their taxes - will they feel the brunt of policy changes, should the government drastically attempt to address debt and borrowing during COVID by lifting revenue?
As Tasmania emerges from the pandemic, everyone can mostly breath a sigh of relief after the release of the 2022-23 state budget - for now, at least.
It's very much steady as she goes, albeit with a 2.5 per cent public sector wage rise well below the consumer price index that will anger unions, net debt forecast to double to $3 billion next year and then reach $5.2 billion in 2026, no slowing down on the infrastructure spend and a curious response to questions about tax reform.
Has something got to give?
The government has promised no major asset sales or privatisations, given its suite of government business enterprises are a key driver of revenue.
Health spending has steadily increased to 32 per cent of the budget, up 4 per cent over four years. That proportion won't be touched, either.
The government will be "doubling down" on its infrastructure spending after three years of heavy borrowing, adding another $1 billion over four years driven by the long-awaited Bridgewater Bridge. This is seen as building an asset base for the future.
There are plans to spend $1.1 billion on 10,000 social and affordable dwellings by 2032, but only $35 million of that has been allocated by 2026.
The budget is still set to cop a $755 million whack between 2027 and 2031 when the no-worse-off guarantee for GST finishes, with neither federal Labor or Coalition keen to make any changes.
With so many pressure points, the spectre of austerity or tax increases will be ever-present. But is such thinking a thing of the past?
Treasurer Michael Ferguson said these questions would be considered in the coming years, but at the moment he was focused on using the levers at his disposal to build resilience into the economy through increased borrowing and spending.
"I've tasked Treasury with providing the government with whole-of-government advice about how we can invest strategically, manage finances going forward, so that we can again prepare the balance sheet for future economic shocks," he said.
He has a $150 million "Treasurer's Reserve" at his disposal should a new COVID variant emerge, or any other sudden change that would need drastic government spending.
And tax reform was not completely ruled out.
"As a new Treasurer, I'm certainly open minded to tax reform if it's in the state interest. If it protects our finances going forward, or gives us a greater level of protection from external shocks," Mr Ferguson said.
First up, Tasmania is likely to see a return to widespread public sector wage disputes as a result of this budget.
A government with heart?
From the moment Premier Jeremy Rockliff took on the role, he's promised to lead a government "with heart". The word "transparency" has also been tacked onto this in recent weeks.
He's attempted to back this up by offering some initial commitments for more resources for child safety functions in the education system, utility bill concessions, tipping more funds into the Integrity Commission and the Right to Information system and more resources for prisoner rehabilitation, among other commitments.
But actions will speak louder than words over the coming years, as the challenges facing the budget become more acute. Who will be forced to bear the brunt?
The budget assumes household consumption, private investment and housing demand will keep growing, thus helping the economy. Yet the challenges could outweigh these: ongoing supply chain issues for construction, interest rate increases harming consumer confidence and - above all - any emergence of worse COVID variants.
The past few years presented governments with an opportunity to respond to the COVID economic downturn with significant, long-lasting, community-building reforms.
Has Tasmania taken that chance, or missed it? And will such a moment come again?
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