Liberal senator Eric Abetz is tipped to lose the seat he has held in the Senate for 28 years when counting for the 2022 federal election ceased on Saturday night.
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Fellow Liberal senators Jonathon Duniam and Wendy Askew were re-elected for another six years as expected, but the party only managed to achieve 2.1 quotas.
With a quota requiring 26,384 votes, Senator Abetz would have to achieve the almost impossible and swag well over 20,000 below-the-line votes to keep his job.
Labor senator Anne Urqhart was re-elected on Saturday night, and with Labor's quota at 1.8, Launceston-based senator Helen Polley is again likely to join her party colleague in the chamber.
Greens senator Peter Whish-Wilson was re-elected.
As for the sixth Tasmanian seat, that is likely to go to Jacqui Lambie Network candidate Tammy Tyrell.
The party amassed just over half of a quota at the close of counting on Saturday night with 15,251 votes.
What should get Ms Tyrell over the line are votes from a number of other minority party candidates when they are distributed in 10 days' time.
Before the election campaign, Ms Tyrell had been employed in the Senator Lambie's office for the past seven years.
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Political reporter for Australian Community Media, based in Hobart.
Political reporter for Australian Community Media, based in Hobart.
