WITNESSING the unedifying tit-for-tat between two supposed national leaders, one can't help but wonder who exactly is telling the truth. On one hand, you have the French heading into an election in the not-too-distant future. On the other hand, Australia is going down the same path.
Given Scott Morrison's government's penchant for obfuscation, smoke and mirrors and policies not necessarily grounded in reality, I think world opinion will favour the French.
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And it should not be forgotten that Donald Trump may well end up as the next US President, (he is currently six to one), and with his unhinged state of mind, may well cancel any deal that Australia may sign anyway. And then where will we be?
MATHEMATICAL models are sophisticated evolutions of the common spreadsheet and as such their reliability is only as good as the input data. A simple change of one input item can alter the outcome to turn a deficit into a profit.
The models being used for COVID predictions, climate change etc are far more complicated, and confidence in their predictions relies on the accuracy of the input.
We should respect the efforts being made in predictions using models, but at the same time not have blind faith that their outcomes are accurate. They are a useful guide but their current unreliability suggests it would be prudent to use their predictions cautiously.
Climate change is a very complex situation requiring reliable input into the models, so further research is required to improve prediction accuracy. But it is seen as a Catch-22 situation where waiting to act is regarded as condemning the Earth to extinction so urgent action is needed now.
Sadly the scene has become highly politicised, with emotion overshadowing reason.
Accusations of "left" and "right" viewpoints cloud the issue and subjugate genuine scientific reasoning.
The community has been persuaded that the sky is in genuine danger of falling in so massive changes to economies are necessary now.
This might indeed be the case and appropriate actions are prudent but what if the models being used are shown to be based on incomplete or inaccurate data?
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ON THE first Tuesday of November, the Reserve Bank attempts to forecast interest rates and monetary policy, whilst "Tuesday Experts" of the Melbourne Cup attempt to predict a windfall profit based on false hope and uncalculated optimism.
As part of the nationwide Cup festivities, The Friends of Clifford Craig Foundation held their 29th Melbourne Cup luncheon at Drysdale House, Launceston, to raise foundation funds to enable extra health facilities and research to be undertaken in the north of the state.
Congratulations to Angela and her band of friends, auctioneer David and his horse Specialist Associate for predicting the potential of every horse in the Cup field to be capable of an upset win. But the real winner was the generosity and goodwill of attendees, who supported this wonderful fundraising event.
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