Saul Eslake says border closures helping drive down unemployment

That is according to economist Saul Eslake's analysis of Australian Bureau of Statistics figures which estimated employment in Tasmania increased by 2600 people in June, total employment was now about 1100 above its pre-coronavirus pandemic peak and the unemployment rate had plunged from 5.7 per cent to 4.5 per cent.

Mr Eslake said that was the lowest level since June 2009.

He said the job creation "hurdle rate" needed to keep the unemployment rate falling was now much lower than it was before last year, due to the ongoing closure of Australia's international borders to temporary and permanent migrants, among others.

"Since March last year, Tasmania's civilian working age (15-plus) population has been growing at an average rate of 233 a month, barely more than half the 406 a month at which it had been growing over the five years to March 2020," Mr Eslake said.

"Hence, assuming an unchanged labour force participation rate, Tasmania's unemployment rate will continue to decline as long as the pace of net new job creation exceeds 142 a month, compared with the almost 250 net new jobs a month which had been required to reduce unemployment - all else being equal - during the five years prior to the pandemic."

Mr Eslake said he was not advocating for cuts in the permanent immigration intake.

The national unemployment rate fell from 5.1 per cent in May to 4.9 per cent in June.

"The declining unemployment rate continues to coincide with employers reporting high levels of job vacancies and difficulties in finding suitable people for them," ABS head of labour statistics Bjorn Jarvis said.