You can set your watch and calendar on events affecting the Gutwein government over the next four years.
To do so you have to accept one imperative, that longevity, rather than the Labor Party, will defeat the government in 2025.
Even allowing for a dream run up to the 2025 election, history is stacked against the Libs winning a fourth term.
Labor lasted 16 years from 1998, but this involved four premiers and a chronically hopeless opposition.
By 2025 the Libs will have been in government 11 years.
This is far too long for a conservative party in a traditionally Labor state.
In its history since 1969 the Libs were in power for two years under Sir Angus Bethune, seven years under Robin Gray, six years under Ray Groom and Tony Rundle, five years under Will Hodgman and so far 18 months under Peter Gutwein.
The last of the epic dynasties faded with Labor premiers Eric Reece (13 years) and Robert Cosgrove (18 years).
The absence back then, of mass media, the 24-hour news cycle, coupled with a highly conservative Tasmanian electorate, made those long reigns possible.
It wouldn't happen today.
So believe me when I say the Libs would know in their hearts that they've just won their last consecutive election.
There is no way they will win again in 2025.
It will be Labor's turn, and I expect Labor will be so sick of opposition by then they will be obsessed with becoming a tight, disciplined outfit, with fresh ideas and fresh minds.
They're better at rebounding than the Liberals.
If you accept my premise, of a change of government in four years' time, then it becomes fascinating to anticipate what changes will happen between now and 2025.
Peter Gutwein will have no interest in suffering a predetermined election fail in 2025. He will bow out gracefully for a brand new career.
He is so well gifted as treasurer I expect he will have no trouble scoring a lucrative career after politics.
He will depart either late 2023 or early 2024 to give a successor time to settle in and enjoy the last fruits of incumbency,
I anticipate his successor will either be Michael Ferguson or Sarah Courtney.
You might wonder why I exclude my old boss Guy Barnett.
Let me say he would make an excellent premier.
He is a workaholic and very smart, but while voters in Lyons love him, the rank and file of the Liberal Party outside Lyons don't.
For similar reasons I'm willing to gamble that Courtney would give Ferguson a real leadership contest.
He's a cool cucumber but she seems far earthier and a natural in the public limelight.
We keep forgetting she's an accomplished businesswomen.
Health never blew up in her face while she was the minister.
Peter Gutwein, Guy Barnett and Jeremy Rockliff will not recontest their seats. Rockcliff shows no interest in becoming premier, and like Gutwein he's been in Parliament since 2002 and is still young enough for a career after politics.
Guy Barnett will be 63 by the time of the next election.
As a lawyer and successful consultant before politics he's got oodles of career opportunities, let alone just retiring.
The Libs, under Barnett's energy stewardship will ensure the state is financially committed to the project Marinus cable and pumped hydro.
They will give Labor no excuse to jettison these policy bulwarks even if enormous sums of capital are involved.
As for the budget, the Libs will ramp up expenditure over the forward estimates.
This ensures Liberal fiscal policy is not so easily dismantled by a new government.
It also booby-traps the budget so that an incoming treasurer is faced with a huge backlash over cuts to services because the forward estimates left behind by the Libs were obviously unsustainable.
The parties always do this to each other in changing administrations.
The Libs will ensure that as many of their pet infrastructure projects as possible are locked in with contracts, so that it's near impossible for a new infrastructure minister to untangle them without a heavy financial cost.
The Libs in Victoria did this to the incoming Andrews Labor government.
Prior to the election they hastily locked in contracts for a giant East-West Melbourne link road, which cost incoming premier Dan Andrews $1.1 billion to cancel.
Starting from 2023 look out for a gradual stream of Liberal staff either quitting to rejoin the private sector or returning to the bureaucracy from where they were seconded.
This is a favourite trick of ministers, seeking to recruit the best and brightest.
You simply second them to your office with the promise that if the government is turfed out these bright things can be seamlessly parachuted back into their old departmental jobs.
Enjoy the next four years. Sit back and watch the fun.
- Barry Prismall is a former The Examiner deputy editor and Liberal adviser