Tasmanian retail sales are forecast to fall after massive growth in the current financial year.
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Forecaster Deloitte Access Economics is tipping total state turnover will drop by 1.1 per cent in 2021-22 as more opportunities for spending open up and coronavirus-driven movement restrictions ease, while stimulus spending recedes.
Deloitte's latest Retail Forecasts report has forecast a small decline (0.1 per cent) in the following year, before a return to modest growth (0.4 per cent) in 2023-24 and a more "normal" 1.5 per cent in 2024-25.
It expects retail sales growth in the current financial year to come in at a thumping 7.8 per cent, well ahead of strong national growth of 5.9 per cent.
National sales growth is forecast to continue, but at a much slower pace for the next two financial years (0.9 per cent and 1 per cent), before speeding up to 2 per cent and 2.3 per cent in the next two years.
Despite the forecast slowing, national and Tasmanian spending would remain at or near all-time highs.
However, Deloitte expects the spending mix to change.
"Australian retail spending has surged through most of 2020-21, benefiting from captured consumers who had little else to spend on through the pandemic," it said.
"However, those retailers who profited from a restricted economy are likely to face headwinds in this new financial year."
Deloitte Access Economics partner and principal report author David Rumbens said spending options had been limited in 2020-21 and many people with cash to burn flocked to retail.
"This has supported what is likely to be the strongest gain in retail spending in a decade, but the next shift in consumer spending is also under way," he said.
"Australian consumers have more options for spending with the easing of restrictions and a need for social contact is supporting eating out and other activities at the expense of other retail spending.
"March quarter data shows that that shift is already under way, with retail spending growth slowing from the heady days of late 2020.
"On the other hand, and with Victoria's recent lockdown the most recent case in point, we are not necessarily snapping back to an open society.
"With international borders still closed for another year and city-wide lockdowns still happening, overall, retailers can expect sales to remain well above pre-COVID levels, despite a slowdown in spending growth over 2021-22.
"Household budgets in 2020 benefited from substantial fiscal stimulus, but this tap is being turned off."
State Treasury analysis of Australian Bureau of Statistics seasonally adjusted figures showed Tasmanian spending on essential items such as food and clothing increased by 0.8 per cent in April and was 18.9 per cent more than in April 2020.
Spending on discretionary (non-essential) items fell by 0.1 per cent in April, but remained 30.8 per cent ahead of April 2020.