I can't think of anything as potent as the vaccine rollout, to threaten Scott Morrison's re-election chances.
They say oppositions don't win office; governments lose office and the Coalition is certainly giving it a red hot go.
Mr Morrison would have gone early to the polls, just as Peter Gutwein did, but the vaccine rollout has delayed that.
Chaotic countries like Belarus, Bangladesh, Hong Kong, Columbia, Lebanon, Mexico, Turkey, Panama, Serbia and Zimbabwe have more of their populations vaccinated than Australia.
Australia is on a mere 2.2 per cent. The US and Britain have surpassed 40 per cent.
In Tasmania we're doing better than the national average, with 5.1 per cent of the population having got two doses. Victoria and NSW are well under three per cent.
So, Anthony Albanese could still graze his shins on the doorstep of the Lodge. I thought Bill Shorten was unelectable and was approaching the same view with Albanese, until now.
Like the rest of Australia, I was sucked in by the opinion polls on election eve in 2019. I was finally wondering if my unelectable opposition leader was going to pull it off.
Mr Shorten was personally unelectable but he also scared voters with his taxation policies. Mr Albanese will avoid these pitfalls and will be competitive if Labor can stop its civil war over energy policy.
Labor is hammering the government over the vaccine rollout because while Mr Morrison kept Australians safe during the rampage of the virus last year, he appears to have dropped the ball over the vaccine rollout.
How smug they were late last year when border closures and national cabinet rendered the federal opposition irrelevant.
Mr Albanese had to grin and bear it.
It was like a war on an invisible, ubiquitous terror. People were dying or barely surviving on ventilators.
The nation was rallying. The virus was everywhere. States were locking borders and throwing away the keys and we were grateful.
The Coalition was cruising, with a perfectly excusable explosion of debt and high expectations of an easy vaccination task.
We've run the virus to ground, there's no rush for a vaccination rollout, they said.
But it was always an operation dependent on too many variables.
Supply, national co-ordination and management, overcoming vaccine hesitancy, domestic production, priorities, political sniping, political co-operation etc.
It hasn't helped, with Aged Cared Minister Richard Colbeck fumbling his portfolio, Linda Reynolds a lame-duck minister and the loss of Mathias Cormann through a career change and Christian Porter through historical rape allegations.
Porter is still there but sidelined in an outer ministry. He was once dependable and credible in his key roles as Attorney-General and Industrial Relations Minister.
The opposition is in election mode so the gloves have come off over management of the pandemic.
Labor has even abandoned bipartisanship over China.
It is condemning the government for not maintaining a semblance of diplomatic relations with China.
This is a stupid attack. China is using any excuse to pick a fight with Australia because we dared call for an inquiry into the COVID origins, and it seems we should have, as suspicion grows over the Wuhan origin.
It underlines Mr Albanese's desperation, to undermine Mr Morrison and his popularity as preferred PM.
The problem for Labor is voter fatigue and a voter backlash.
People are fed up with the pandemic and questionable lockdowns.
They also blame China for our current, frosty relations. They certainly don't blame Mr Morrison. China is behaving like an arrogant bully because it has become a superpower. Anyone can see that.
Voters are fed up with politicians bickering. They just want to be kept safe and most of them, apart from loopy anti-vaxxers, know vaccination is the key to survival, individually and as a community, with commerce and employment rebounding strongly.
The government can point to thriving economic indicators as justification for eye-watering expenditure and debt levels.
The government hurled the kitchen sink at the problem and we applauded.
So, it had almost everything going for it, except the rollout.
Mr Morrison has finally seen the danger. He has ordered a senior army officer, Lt General John Frewen, to manage the rollout.
In short, he's put us on a war footing as he should have months ago, and as he did when the pandemic struck early last year.
A military-led rollout is good optics; it emphasises urgency and it may get it done sooner, ultimately because the military is always damn good at logistics.
The latest betting is we will have the entire population properly vaccinated by next March. Still too long.
If breakouts like the one in Melbourne, especially in aged care, start causing deaths then Mr Morrison's slow rollout will cause him grief.
Enough voters may conclude, that if he'd cranked it up sooner no one needed to suffer or die this year.
- Barry Prismall, former The Examiner deputy editor and Liberal adviser