Eric Abetz's political survival will be decided by the strength of Labor's third spot on its Senate ticket as well as any candidate the Jacqui Lambie Network might run in the next federal election.
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The Liberal Party on Saturday revealed its Senate ticket which had Jonathon Duniam placed first, Wendy Askew second, and Senator Abetz third.
This is the first time he has been removed from the top spot since he was elected.
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Labor senators Anne Urquhart and Helen Polley, and Greens senator Peter Whish-Wilson are also up for re-election when a federal election is eventually called.
State government minister Sarah Courtney deflected questions about whether Senator Abetz had been demoted due to a in-house dissatisfaction with him.
She said she was excited to see a strong Senate ticket ahead of the next federal election.
"I'm going to be working hard along with my colleagues to ensure we get three senators elected here in Tasmania," Ms Courtney said.
"We have got three talented people on our ticket.
"We have clearly seen the Liberal Party showing its democratic processes."
Psephologist Kevin Bonham said the Liberals had a chance of hanging onto the third seat if it was assumed whoever the Jacqui Lambie Network decided to run did not do as well as Senator Lambie did herself in the 2019 election.
"A lot of it depends on not just how well the party does overall, but whether any other party runs anyone significant," he said.
"In the last election, Labor was boosted quite a bit by Lisa Singh being there who pulled in below-the-line votes from all over the place.
"There is the potential for anyone who can get 4 or 5 per cent of the vote to potentially be in the mix."
"It seems at the moment to be quite an open race."
Senator Abetz won 8709 below-the-line votes in the 2016 election and achieved 2.57 of the overall first-preference votes.
Four senators were elected in that election through the strength of above-the-line votes.
Richard Colbeck, who was placed fifth on the ticket, did not get re-elected despite polling 3.97 per cent of overall first-preference votes - or 13,474 votes.